US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 08 12 (1 Min) 07.11.12

Trade Balance Comments Off

Jul 112012

7/11/2012 Monthly Trade Balance (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: -48.5B
Actual: -48.7B
Previous Revision: -0.5B to -50.6B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 84.86
1st Peak @ 85.05 – 0232 (2 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 84.86 – 0234 (4 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 85.17 – 0246 (16 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 84.95 – 0256 (26 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report basically matched the forecast, with a small previous report revision. Still it yielded a small spike that corrected the short term oversold condition and reacted to the falling dollar. It climbed above the 200 SMA and nicked the 50 SMA before retracing. The 2nd peak was able to eclipse the 100 SMA, then the reversal fell just below the 50 and 200 SMAs.

CL 08 12 (1 Min) 07.11.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jul 112012

7/11/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.3M
Actual: -4.7M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 85.43
1st Peak @ 85.79 / Retrace to 85.16 – 0431 (1 min)
36 ticks / -27 ticks

2nd Peak @ 84.68 – 0501 (31 min)
75 ticks

Reversal to 86.49 – 0653 (143 min)
181 ticks

Notes: More loss of inventory than expected of the crude, but a large gain in gasoline caused initial indecision. The gasoline numbers drove the short reaction that achieved a 2nd peak for 75 ticks in 31 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the R1 Pivot. The reversal was large and drawn out, claiming 181 ticks in over 2 hrs nearly reaching the R2 Pivot as the traders evaluated the crude numbers again.

CL 08 12 (1 Min) 07.06.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Jul 062012

7/6/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 5.1K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 7.3K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.3%
Rate Actual: 7.2%
INDECISIVE then DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 0.9836
1st Peak @ 0.9845 / Reversal to 0.9825 – 0231 (1 min)
9 ticks / -11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9805 – 0252 (22 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 0.9825 – 0319 (49 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Mildly positive report showing a small rise in the number of jobs and 0.1% improvement in the unemployment rate. This broke at the same time as the US Non Farm Employment report which was strongly negative. This caused initial indecision followed by a short move that was driven by the dollar rallying. I advised against trading this report due to the US NFP parallel and superior influence. This initial action was hampered by the 3 major SMAs near the origin, then the S1 Pivot was crossed about halfway down the path that terminated just above the S2 Pivot. The reversal rose to just below the S1 Pivot.

CL 08 12 (2 Range) 07.06.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Jul 062012

NG 08 12 (1 Min) 07.06.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Jul 062012

7/6/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 44B
Actual: 39B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.906
1st Peak @ 3.025 – 0431 (1 min)
119 ticks

Reversal to 2.907 – 0433 (3 min)
118 ticks

Notes: Smaller than expected gain in supply from the forecast caused a large long spike after a 12 tick short move in the wrong direction. As today was the first test of the $3 level in a few months, it reversed strongly giving it all back on the :33 bar. All 3 SMAs were crossed before the halfway point of the :31 bar, and 4 Pivots from the S1 to the R2 were crossed. After the reversal, it bounced back up and chopped +/- 30 ticks on either side of the 200 SMA.

CL 08 12 (1 Min) 07.05.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jul 052012

7/5/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0500 HI time / 1100 EDT)
Forecast: -1.6M
Actual: -4.3M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 87.48
1st Peak @ 88.03 – 0501 (1 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 87.37 – 0521 (21 min)
66 ticks

Notes: More loss of inventory than expected caused a healthy long spike for 55 ticks in 1 min. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 87.60, then had an opportunity to get at least 30 ticks with ease. As the market had been in a buying mode for the previous hour, it reversed at 88.03 at the R3 Pivot to come back to nick the 200 SMA 20 min later for 66 ticks.

CL 08 12 (1 Min) 07.05.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jul 052012

7/5/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 385K
Actual: 374K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 87.95
1st Peak @ 87.77 – 0231 (1 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 87.51 – 0234 (4 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 87.74 – 0235 (5 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Report came in better than expected with 374K when 385K was expected. The market had recently hit a 3 week high of 89.00 and was strongly correcting lower. The claims were not enough to bring the bulls back into the market, so it was caught in the selloff. The market fell much more, but not due to the claims.

CL 08 12 (1 Min) 07.05.12

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jul 052012

7/5/2012 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 53.1
Actual: 52.1
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 87.03
1st Peak @ 86.80 – 0402 (2 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 86.50 – 0408 (8 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 87.22 – 0422 (22 min)
72 ticks

Notes: Negative report fell short of the forecast. This caused a slow developing short spike on the first and second bars of 23 ticks, a small reversal, then a lower 2nd peak of 53 ticks, then a reversal of 72 ticks. This report is starting to react late as a normal trend. I canceled the trade after not filling in 15 sec, but then it dove and delivered a nice yield. No SMAs were crossed and the 2nd peak terminated just above the S1 Pivot. The reversal fought through the 50 SMA then settled just above the PP Pivot and 100 SMA on top of each other.

CL 08 12 (1 Min) 07.03.12

Factory Orders Comments Off

Jul 032012

7/3/2012 Monthly Factory Orders (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 0.1%
Actual: 0.7%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to -0.7%
SPIKE / REVERSAL
Started @ 87.84
Peak @ 88.04 – 0401 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 87.18 – 0412 (12 min)
86 ticks

Notes: Positive report exceeded the forecast offset by a small downward revision to the previous report. This caused a long spike of 20 ticks in 1 minute that crossed no SMAs and bounced off of the S3 Pivot. Since the market had rallied about $6 or 600 ticks in the last 22 hrs, even with a strong report, it finally gave way to the bears and the overbought perception prevailed. This is why we saw a 86 tick reversal in 11 min that fought through the 50 SMA after the peak.

CL 08 12 (1 Min) 07.02.12

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jul 022012

7/2/2012 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 52.1
Actual: 49.7
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 83.26
1st Peak @ 82.91 – 0402 (2 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 83.13 – 0405 (5 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report moderately fell short of the forecast and came in below the threshold of 50 indicating contraction for the first time in 3 years. This caused a 35 tick short spike that did not have to cross any SMAs or Pivots to peak at 82.91. It then rebounded for 22 ticks on the :05 bar and was likely gearing up for a 2nd peak short when news out of Iran broke about a threat to close of the Strait of Hormuz. This caused the dramatic long :07 bar and follow on volatility. This is why you always use stop losses when trading 2nd peaks and reversals, because some news event can always throw the current conditions out of the window and ruin your trade.

Older Entries Newer Entries