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6/15/2012 Monthly Industrial Production (0315 HI time / 0915 EDT)
Forecast: 0.1%
Actual: -0.1%
Previous revision: -0.1% to 1.0%
DULL REACTION
Started @ 83.76
1st Peak @ 83.80 – 0316 (1 min)
4 ticks
Reverse to 83.71 – 0317 (2 min)
9 ticks
Notes: Report mildly fell short of the forecast, and the previous report was revised slightly downward. This caused a dull reaction and with no impetus to react from the report. Close out JOBB after 10 seconds with no fill or decisive move.
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06/14/2012 30-yr Bond Auction (0701 HI time / 1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.09/2.7
Actual: 2.72/2.4
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 149’24 (0701)
1st Peak @ 149’09 – 0705 (4 min)
15 ticks
Reversal to 149’29 – 0731 (30 min)
20 ticks
Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield of 2.72 is the lowest in years, indicating high demand for the bonds with the dollar and equities unattractive. This caused a delayed but sizeable short reaction for the bonds, as the yield fell by 15 ticks, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot near the origin and peaking on the :05 bar. With JOBB you would fill short at 149’21, with the 200/50 SMAs above and the 100 SMA/PP Pivot below, then have seen it pull back, repelled by the PP Pivot and the 100 SMA. Be patient and ride out the 4 ticks of heat on the :03 bar, as the :04 and :05 bars dove strongly to 3 ticks below the LOD. The second attempt to cross the PP Pivot was true and had a lot more inertia. I would close out at the LOD – 149’12 for 9 ticks. The reversal was able to rebound for 20 ticks in about 25 min, encountering resistance at the SMAs.
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6/14/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 55B
Actual: 67B
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 2.208
1st Peak @ 2.350 – 0432 (2 min)
142 ticks
2nd Peak @ 2.465 – 0631 (121 min)
257 ticks (2x top)
Reversal to 2.417 – 0730 (180 min)
48 ticks
Notes: Medium offset in the supply gain to exceed the forecast caused a surprising large long spike that triggered a long term rally in to a FAN. With all the SMAs near the origin and the market trading in a tight range previously, the 31 bar crossed the R1,R2, and R3 Pivots. The market must have been look for an excuse to rally in the long term and used the storage report as a catalyst. The reversal reclaimed 48 ticks in an hour after the top of the FAN, but after the reversal, the market continued to rally for several more hours.
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6/13/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual: -0.4%
Previous revision: -0.4% to -0.3%
Regular Forecast: -0.1%
Regular Actual: -0.2%
Previous Revision: -0.3% to -0.2%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 82.86
1st Peak @ 82.68 – 0234 (4 min)
18 ticks
Reversal to 83.03 – 0239 (9 min)
35 ticks
2nd Peak @ 82.34 – 0246 (16 min)
52 ticks (from origin)
Reversal to 82.67 – 0306 (36 min)
33 ticks
Notes: Report was strongly negative, falling short of the forecast across the board with large downward revisions to both previous reports. PPI broke at the same same and was also strongly negative. With everything so bearish, we would expect a stronger short reaction initially. Looking at a higher order chart we see a strong pivot at the 82.65-82.70 area and the S1 Pivot was at 82.73. The market had also sold off about $1 in the last 4.5 hrs. The initial drop tested that then bounced up 35 ticks before gaining the momentum to break through for a 2nd peak of 52 ticks to 82.34(the 44-46 bars were strong and decisively red). The reversal reclaimed 33 ticks in 20 min after the 2nd peak. The market chopped a little lower and hit 82.15 before climbing back up to 83.15 before the inventory report possibly on the tail end of the influence of this report.
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6/13/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.6M
Actual: -0.2M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 83.12
1st Peak @ 83.56 – 0432 (2 min)
24 ticks
2nd Peak @ 84.01 – 0441 (11 min)
89 ticks
Reversal to 83.40 – 0505 (35 min)
61 ticks
Notes: Smaller than expected drop in supply caused a strong and safe spike and 2nd peak. With the market rallying from a intraday low earlier due to the very bearish retail sales report, all the SMAs were below the price action and the market crossed the PP Pivot near the origin, then briefly climbed above the R1 Pivot on the 2nd peak for an impressive 89 ticks before the reversal reclaimed 61 ticks 24 min after the 2nd peak.
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6/6/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.1M
Actual: -0.1M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 86.00
1st Peak @ 85.56 – 0432 (2 min)
44 ticks
Reversal to 86.17 – 0447 (17 min)
61 ticks
Notes: Smaller than expected loss in supply and offset of the forecast caused a decisive drop for 44 ticks. After looking at the internals of the report, the Cushing inventories grew more than expected, causing the drop. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 85.86 and had an opportunity for at least 15 ticks. The spike crossed the 50 SMA about halfway down the path of the :31 bar then the R2 Pivot on the :32 bar. After bottoming out 15 ticks lower than the R2 Pivot, the reversal reclaimed 61 ticks.
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6/12/2012 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 563.50 – 0229
1st Peak @ 575.00 – 0231 (2 min)
46 ticks
Reversal to 551.50 – 0234 (5 min)
94 ticks
Notes: Report Reaction caused a medium long spike of 46 ticks over 2 min, crossing all 3 SMAs and the PP Pivot, and peaking on the R1 Pivot. Prior to the report, the market had been trending slightly downward, but still in a very tight range as the HOD and LOD were only separated by 27 ticks before the LOD was extended. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 565.50 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with at least 25 ticks as it hovered between 571 and 574. It reversed for 94 ticks in the next 3 min, bottoming 21 ticks below the S2 Pivot . After that it bounced up to the 200 SMA, then remained confined between the S1 Pivot and the 200 SMA.
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6/8/2012 Monthly Trade Balance (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: -49.4B
Actual: -50.1B
Previous Revision: +0.7B to -47.1B
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 82.34
1st Peak @ 82.22 – 0231 (1 min)
12 ticks (2x bottom)
Reverse to 82.63 – 0235 (5 min)
41 ticks
Notes: Report mildly fell short of forecast, with a small previous report downward revision. Reaction was a weak negative, shorting for 12 ticks then pulling back and reversing quickly. With JOBB you would not have filled until 20 sec if you had not cancelled the order. Due to the near matching report the slow reaction is not surprising. Reversal crossed all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Pivot to achieve 41 ticks in only 5 min.
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6/7/2012 FED Testimony (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE, then DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 86.69
1st Peak @ 86.85 / Retrace to 86.37 – 0401 (1 min)
16 ticks / -32 ticks
Final Peak @ 84.57 – 0531 (91 min)
212 ticks
Reverse to 85.36 – 0551 (111 min)
79 ticks (2x top)
Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee. Indecisive at first would have gotten you in long then retraced short and hit the stop loss. When Chaiman Bernanke made it clear that QE3 would not be inserted, the market reacted bearishly, selling off methodically for the next 90 min. The movement was not clear initially, however when it penetrated the 200 SMA, then came back up to bounce off of it as resistance, that would be a good place to enter a short trade on the :28 or :29 bar. The double bottom at 85.31 at about 1 hr after the testimony started would be a good exit for nearly 100 ticks.
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