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2/15/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.8M
Actual: -0.2M
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 101.76
1st Peak @ 102.11 – 0533 (3 min)
35 ticks
Reversal to 101.57 – 0539 (9 min)
54 ticks
Notes: Report spike crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs, then peaked at the 200 SMA or just a little above. The 0532 candle did follow to recover the pullback at the end of the 0531 candle, but this usually will not happen, so get out when it hits the 200 SMA.
-021512.jpg "Click to enlarge")
2/15/2012 Monthly Industrial Production (0415 HI time / 0915 EST)
Forecast: 0.7%
Actual:0.0%
Previous revision:+0.6% to 1.0%
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 101.76
1st Peak @ 101.67 – 0415 (1 min)
22 ticks
Retrace to 101.82 – 0420 (5 min)
15 ticks
Notes: Report fell well short of forecast, but previous report was revised largely upward. These offset, but the current report negativity drove the small reaction. With the SMAs in a FIST, the spikes were reined in to just a few ticks. If it had been all good news, the price could have spiked up and cleared the FIST.
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2/14/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual:0.7%
Previous revision:-0.3% to -0.5%
Regular Forecast: 0.8%
Regular Actual:0.4%
Previous Revision:-0.1% to 0.0%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 101.55
1st Peak @ 101.44 / retrace to 101.63 – 0331 (1 min)
-11 / +8 ticks
2nd Peak @ 101.22 – 0334 (4 min)
33 ticks
Reversal to 101.47 – 0343 (13 min)
25 ticks
Notes: Report was mixed, mostly falling short of forecast causing a downward spike after a bit of indecision. In this case the market spiked up prior to falling and would have gotten you in long with the JOBB strategy. Either take the stop loss after seeing the volatility, or try to close out with minimal loss / gain.
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2/10/2012 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (0730 HI time / 1230 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 98.75
Peak @ 98.68 – 0401 (1 min)
7 ticks
Reversal to 98.86 – 0737 (7 min)
18 ticks
Notes: Nothing shocking to the market enough to cause a significant reaction. In this case the JOBB would not have filled after 10 sec, so cancel the order.
-021012.jpg "Click to enlarge")
2/10/2012 Monthly Trade Balance (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: -48.1B
Actual: -48.8B
Previous Revision: +0.7B to -47.1B
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 98.05
1st Peak @ 98.33 – 0334 / 0338 (4/8 min)
28 ticks (2x top)
Retrace to 98.08 – 0341 (11 min)
25 ticks
Notes: Report mildly fell short of forecast, but previous report revised mildy upward. Reaction was positive, peaking at the 50 SMA then hovering in a range for 5 min before reversing to S3 line.
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2/8/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.9M
Actual: 0.3M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 100.15
1st Peak @ 100.30 / Reversal to 99.63 – 0531 (1 min)
15 ticks / -42 ticks
Notes: Spiked up 15 ticks then quickly reversed. This one would hit your stop loss. The market was caught in a FIST before the report. It straddled the 100 SMA on the release, went up then reversed to go through all the major indicators.
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2/7/2012 FED Testimony (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE (into UPWARD FAN)
Started @ 97.27
1st Peak @ 96.88 – 0506 (6 min)
39 ticks
Reverse to 98.37 – 0525 (25 min)* not due to FED testimony
149 ticks
Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies before Senate Budget Committee on economic outlook and federal budget situation. Comments made were mostly identical to the testimony before the House in the last week. This accounted for the lower volatility as there was no surprise. I would NOT have traded this report as it is a “repeat” not likely to have any shock value to the market. The large FAN was due to Greece nearing a deal with the EU, and concerns of future supply disruptions with the unrest in Iran and Nigeria.
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2/3/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 150K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:243K
Previous Revision: +3K to 200K
Rate Forecast: 8.5%
Rate Actual:8.3%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 96.41
1st Peak @ 97.26 – 0331 (1 min)
85 ticks
2nd Peak @ 97.47 – 0338 (8 min)
106 ticks
Reversal to 96.66 – 0351 (21 min)
81 ticks
Notes: Strongly positive report that greatly exceeded the forecast with Jobs and the rate with a negligible upward revision to the previous report causing a healthy spike upward and follow on 2nd peak. The jobs created were legitimate even if the rate job was “cooked”, so the reaction was decidedly positive. I would wait for the 2nd peak and close out in the 97.40 range.
-020312.jpg "Click to enlarge")
-020312.jpg "Click to enlarge")