US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.03.12

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jan 032012

1/3/2012 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 53.3
Actual:53.9
Previous revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 102.64
1st Peak @ 102.74 – 0501 (1 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded forecast but 0501 candle was tame. This is due to the mild delta of the report and the New Years hangover with low trade volume the first trading day after the holidays. JOBB would have gotten you in long and allowed you to close out with a meager profit or flat after hovering.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 12.27.11

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Dec 272011

12/27/2011 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 58.5
Actual: 64.5
Previous revision: -0.8 to 55.2
SPIKE / RETRACE or PRICED IN
Started @ 100.79
1st Peak @ 100.86 – 0501 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 100.49 – 0516 (16 min)
37 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded forecast but the previous revision was downward. This should have caused a healthy spike but did not for 2 reasons: 1) This is Christmas season so low volume, 2) the last 20 min saw a large rise in the market so most of the reaction was priced in, yielding a muted reaction. I would not trade based on #1, but even if I had setup a JOBB, I would close out before it filled with the dull reaction.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 12.23.11

Durable Goods Comments Off

Dec 232011

12/23/2011 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual:0.3%
Previous revision:0.8% to 1.5%
Regular Forecast: 2.2%
Regular Actual:3.8%
Previous Revision:+0.7% to 0.0%
SPIKE/RETRACE
Started @ 100.11
Peak @ 99.97 / retrace to 100.17 – 0331 (1 min)
6 / -14 ticks

Retrace to 100.28 – 0338 (8 min)
31 ticks

Notes: Report came in mixed overall with the core report disappointing while the regular report and previous revisions were solidly positive. Report was released on the Friday before Christmas, with extremely low volume. I would not trade this report due to the Christmas effect, and the erratic nature of the 0331 and 0335 candles illustrates this.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 12.20.11

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

Dec 202011

12/20/2011 Monthly Building Permits (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: 0.63M
Actual:0.68M
Previous revision: -0.01M to 0.64M
INDECISIVE REACTION
Started @ 95.83
Peak@ 95.90 / Retrace to 95.72 – 0231 (1 min)

Notes: Report was strong and positive, but trade volume is too low due to Christmas holiday. Cancel the trade if not filled in 8-10 sec. If you got in the trade, then go for minimal gain or loss.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 12.15.11

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Dec 152011

12/15/2011 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 5.1
Actual:10.3
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 95.97
1st Peak @ 96.18 – 0501 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 95.40 – 0511 (11 min)
78 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded forecast causing a meager spike and huge reversal . The 0401 candle crossed the 50 SMA about halfway up, thus still had a pull to reverse the direction. That would have been my cue to close out above the 50. The large drop after is abnormal with the positive report, but this is close enough to Christmas that trade volume is likely low created strange reactions.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 12.15.11

Industrial Production Comments Off

Dec 152011

12/15/2011 Monthly Industrial Production (0415 HI time / 0915 EST)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual:-0.2%
Previous revision: none
Spike with 2nd peak
Started @ 95.65
1st Peak @ 95.79 – 0416 (1 min)
14 ticks

2nd Peak @ 95.93 – 0421/0423 (6/8 min)
28 ticks (2x top)

Notes: Report fell short of forecast. Opposite reaction that expected probably due to downward fan before report. 2nd peak is just above 200 and 50 SMAs

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 12.13.11

Retail Sales Comments Off

Dec 132011

12/13/2011 Monthly Retail Sales (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual:0.2%
Previous revision: none
Regular Forecast: 0.6%
Regular Actual:0.2%
Previous Revision:+0.1% to 0.6%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 98.75
1st Peak @ 98.63 – 0231 (1 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 98.57 – 0341 (11 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 98.83 – 0356 (26 min)
26 ticks (2x top)

Notes: Report fell short of forecast causing a moderate downward spike and follow on reversal . Spike hit the R1 line and bounced back up. Low trade volume due to Christmas holiday, hence reaction was tamer than expected. Overall activity restricted to between just above 200 / 100 SMAs and R1 line.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 12.13.11

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Dec 132011

12/13/2011 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (0915 HI time / 1415 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 101.10 (0913)
1st Peak @ 100.41 – 0926 (13 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 101.01 – 0931 (18 min)
60 ticks (2x top)

2nd Peak @ 100.43 – 0941 (28 min)
67 ticks

Notes: *Report broke 2 min early at 0823. Report was not biased positive or negative as the FED reported the US economy is expanding moderately and left their policy unchanged. Again, DO NOT USE JOBB due to uncertain release time. After seeing the 0914 candle I would get in short on the 0915 candle after it retraced up at about 101.00. After seeing it cross the 100 SMA, the 200 SMA and the long wicks on the 0924 -0926 candles I would get out on the 0928 candle at the latest when it went above 100.65. Even then, after revering upwards it came right back down to almost the same level, then seesawed for the next hour.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 12.09.11

Trade Balance Comments Off

Dec 092011

12/9/2011 Monthly Trade Balance (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: -43.5B
Actual: -43.5B
Previous Revision: -1.1B to -44.2B
Spike / retrace
Started @ 98.69
1st Peak @ 98.84 – 0332 (2 min)
15 ticks

Retrace to 98.57 – 0333 (3 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report matched forecast, but previous report revised mildly downward. Reaction was positive overall, hitting resistance at the 50 SMA, then reversing.

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