CL 05 12 (1 Min) 12.05.11

 Factory Orders  Comments Off on CL 05 12 (1 Min) 12.05.11
Dec 052011
 


CL 05 12 (1 Min) 12.05.11

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 12.02.11

 Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly  Comments Off on CL 03 12 (1 Min) 12.02.11
Dec 022011
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 12.02.11

12/2/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 126K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 120K
Previous Revision:+20K to 100K
Rate Forecast: 9.0%
Rate Actual:8.6%
SPIKE / REVERSAL
Started @ 101.46
Peak @ 101.93 – 0331 (1 min)
47 ticks

Reversal to 100.78 – 0342 (12 min)
115 ticks

Notes: Strongly positive report exceeded the forecast on the face of it, but the market called BS on the 0.4% drop in the rate and rose a meager 47 ticks before reversing for 117. This is the first of a few falsely rosy reports. The markets know this and do not buy it. Following my normal routine, I would wait until the 0332 candle to decide to get out. After seeing a 10 tick drop, I would probably close around the R1 line if it did not bounce back up.

CL 03 12 (2 Range) 12.02.11

 Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly  Comments Off on CL 03 12 (2 Range) 12.02.11
Dec 022011
 


CL 03 12 (2 Range) 12.02.11

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 12.01.11

 ISM Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on CL 03 12 (1 Min) 12.01.11
Dec 012011
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 12.01.11

12/1/2011 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 51.6
Actual:52.7
Previous revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 101.16
1st Peak @ 101.27 / Retrace to 101.04 – 0501 (1 min)
11 ticks / -12 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded forecast but 0501 candle was indecisive with low after report market volume. Either the report was leaked in advance, or it was already priced in such that the reaction was bizarre. JOBB would have gotten you in long and then retraced to hit the stop loss before returning to the candle start value.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 11.30.11

 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change  Comments Off on CL 04 12 (1 Min) 11.30.11
Nov 302011
 


CL 04 12 (1 Min) 11.30.11

11/30/2011 Monthly ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0315 HI time / 0815 EST)
Forecast: 131K
Actual:206K
Previous Revision:+20K to 130k
INDECISIVE
Started @ 101.94
Oscillated between 102.00 and 101.76 erratically in 0316 candle
6 ticks / -18 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded forecast, and previous report revised largely upward, but the FED unexpectedly made an announcement and policy change relaxing the liquidity of the dollar 15 min earlier. As that caused nearly a 200 tick spike in the market in 6 minutes, its reverberations were still being felt when the ADP report broke. This muted the effect of the ADP report even though it was strong. After seeing the big spike on the chart I would not trade this report.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 11.30.11

 Beige Book  Comments Off on CL 03 12 (1 Min) 11.30.11
Nov 302011
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 11.30.11

11/30/2011 FED Beige Book (0900 HI time / 1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSAL (REPEATED)
Started @ 100.70
1st Peak @ 101.15 – 0909/0912 (9/12 min)
45 ticks (2x top)

Reversal to 100.70 – 0919 (19 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 100.59 – 0930 (30 min)
56 ticks

Notes: Report was satisfactory overall showing moderate broad based growth in all 12 sectors. This caused a short term spike and then a seesaw until 0930 when the reversal hit bottom and again at 0950-0955. I would not use the JOBB software (even though it would have worked in this case), wait until seeing the activity in the first 3-5 min. Since it bucked the trend of the FAN already in progress and reversed upward, you could get in a long trade and expect it to go to the 200 / 100 SMAs and then close out after the double top at 101.15 @ 0909/0912. After seeing the double top, I would place a short order in the 101.10 area and ride it down to the 100.75 area since that is just above where the report broke at 0900.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 11.29.11

 CB Consumer Confidence  Comments Off on CL 03 12 (1 Min) 11.29.11
Nov 292011
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 11.29.11

11/29/2011 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 43.9
Actual: 56.0
Previous revision: +1.1 to 40.9
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 99.68
1st Peak @ 100.02 – 0501 (1 min)
34 ticks

2nd Peak @ 100.13 – 0504 (4 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 99.74 – 0509 (9 min)
39 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded forecast along with the previous revision causing a healthy spike, 2nd peak, and follow on full reversal . The magnitude of the spike would have been larger, but the FAN in the previous 20 min had priced in some of the reaction. The peak is obviously at 0504 due to the candle showing the upward movement arrested. I would close out in the 100.05 area.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 11.23.11

 Durable Goods  Comments Off on CL 03 12 (1 Min) 11.23.11
Nov 232011
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 11.23.11

11/23/2011 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual:0.7%
Previous revision:-1.1% to 0.6%
Regular Forecast: -1.1%
Regular Actual:-0.7%
Previous Revision:-0.7% to -1.5%
SPIKE/RETRACE
Started @ 96.68
Peak @ 97.08 – 0336 (6 min)
40 ticks

Retrace to 96.47 – 0354 (24 min)
61 ticks

Notes: Report came in exceeding the forecast overall with moderate downward revisions to the previous reports. Report was released at the same time as weekly unemployment claims (Weds due to Thanksgiving holiday) which came in at 393K as expected. I would not trade this report as the unemployment claims caused the 0331 candle to be volatile and indecisive, but I would watch the 0332 candle and /or trade the reversal.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 11.22.11

 Prelim GDP  Comments Off on CL 04 12 (1 Min) 11.22.11
Nov 222011
 


CL 04 12 (1 Min) 11.22.11

11/22/2011 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: 2.4%
Actual: 2.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 98.48
1st Peak@ 98.16 – 0331 (1 min)
32 ticks

2nd Peak@ 97.93 – 0347 (17 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 98.23 – 0350 (20 min)
30 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly negative (0.4% off of the forecast is about the max that is typically seen). Report released in the middle of a preexisting Downward FAN. This aided the magnitude of the drop, but also notice the pullback on the 0331 candle. Still given the FAN, I would wait it out for a deeper drop. It is hard to say where the influence of the report stops since the FAN would have likely continued on course without the report. The 2nd peak is obvious at 0347 when the FAN reverses, but I only assess the first rebound level to be due to the GDP report. I would close out after seeing the 0343 candle as that is a good indication the downward momentum is exhausted.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 11.17.11

 Philly FED Manufacturing Index  Comments Off on CL 04 12 (1 Min) 11.17.11
Nov 172011
 


CL 04 12 (1 Min) 11.17.11

11/17/2011 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 8.7
Actual:3.6
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 101.66
1st Peak @ 101.44 – 0501 (1 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 101.78 – 0502 (2 min) / 102.03 – 0510 (10 min)
34 ticks / 59 ticks

Notes: Report mildly fell short of forecast causing a meager spike, pullback, and greater reversal . The 0401 candle fell steadily 22 ticks up to 22 sec, then hovered at the max negative point 8 sec before rising. That would have been my cue to close out there. Notice the reversal at 0402 hit the 200 and 50 SMAs along with the S1 line – a solid resistance buffer causing it to bounce back. It took another 6-8 min to break through hitting a max high at 0410.

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