US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 04-14 (1 Min) 3.5.2014

Beige Book Comments Off

Mar 262014

3/5/2014 FED Beige Book (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION (No Fill)
Started @ 101.58
Movement between 1401 and 1404 bars spanned 101.55 – 101.60.

1st Peak @ 101.29 – 1406 (6 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 101.42 – 1409 (9 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 101.22 – 1415 (15 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 101.54 – 1425 (25 min)
32 ticks

Notes: The Federal Reserve said today that economic activity continued to expand at a moderate pace during the reporting period of January to early February. Eight Districts reported moderate growth rates in economic activity as during the previous reporting period, while modest declines were reported for the Midwest and Northeast regions being attributed to the cold weather. The DX had minimal movement, and mostly chopped sideways. This resulted in only a narrow range of 5 ticks in the first 4 bars, so cancel the order with JOBB after 2 min. It eventually caused a reaction on the :05 bar for a 1st peak of 29 ticks in 2 min. After that it reversed for 13 ticks in the next 3 min before achieving a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks. Then it reversed for 32 ticks in the next 10 min.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 3.6.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 272014

3/6/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 336K
Actual: 323K
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.009721 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009694 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))-27 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009714 – 0830:45 (1 min)
)))20 ticks
————
Double Bottom @ 0.009694 – 0901 (31 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 0.009713 – 1023 (113 min)
19 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009710 (just above the S3 Pivot) / 0.009701 (no SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009731 (just below the 20 SMA) / 0.009740 (just above the S2 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in strong with 13K less jobs than the forecast. This caused a large short unsustainable spike of 27 ticks departure from the anchor point as it crossed the S3 Pivot and hit the S4 Mid Pivot. The short move would have filled both tiers of the long entries at 0.009710 and 0.009701, then fallen an additional 7 ticks before retreating to surrender most of the drop. With an average position long position of 0.009705, look to exit en between 0.009712 and 0.009714 with about 14 – 18 total ticks when it hovered in the middle of the :31 bar. After the :31 bar, it trickled down to a double bottom after 30 min on the S4 Mid Pivot again before reversing for 19 ticks in the next 80 min, crossing the S3 Pivot.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 3.7.2014

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Mar 272014

3/7/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 151K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 175K
Previous Revision: +16K to 129K
Rate Forecast: 6.6%
Rate Actual: 6.7%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 132’02
1st Peak @ 130’20 – 0832 (2 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 131’00 – 0836 (6 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Impressive report showing 24K more jobs created than expected, a moderarw previous upward revision of 16K jobs, and a 0.1% increase in the unemployment U-3 rate as more people are looking for work. This caused a large decisive short move of 46 ticks on the :31 and :32 bars. It fell to cross all 3 major SMAs and the S4 Mid Pivot at the bottom of the spike while extending the LOD. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 132’18 with abnormally high 13 ticks of slippage, then seen it continue to fall to about 131’03 where it first slowed. It eventually ratcheted down to 130’20 allowing up to 30 ticks to be captured even with the high slippage. The conservative recommendation in the alert of 15 ticks would have easily filled. After the peak, it reversed for 12 ticks in the next 4 bars back to the S3 Pivot. Then it traded sideways mostly in between the S3 and S4 Mid Pivots for the next hour.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 3.12.2014

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Mar 272014

3/12/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.80/2.5
Actual: 2.73/2.9
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 132’02 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 132’07 – 1301:43 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Reversal to 132’04 – 1302:35 (2 min)
)))3 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 132’09 – 1315 (14 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 132’03 – 1408 (67 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 131’30 (no SMA/Pivot near) / 131’27 (just below the R2 Pivot)
Short entries – 132’06 (just above the R3 Mid Pivot ) / 132’10 (no SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield continued to fall after topping 3.00 in January. This caused the ZB to pop long for 5 ticks, then back off and hover between 2-4 ticks near the R3 Mid Pivot. This would have filled your inner short entry at 132’06 with 1 tick to spare, then allowed an exit between breakeven and +2 ticks as it hovered. This is a situation where the prudent play is to exit safely with what the market is yielding. When it tried to reverse for 10 min and was unable to fall below 132’04, do not get greedy. After the reversal, it achieved a minor 2nd peak of 2 more ticks after 10 min, then reversed for 6 ticks to the 200 SMA.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 3.13.2014

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

Mar 272014

3/13/2014 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 3.69/2.3
Actual: 3.63/2.4
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 133’06 (1301)
1st Peak @ 132’30 – 1302 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 133’10 – 1310 (9 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell moderately from last month and was consistent with the 10-y auction the day before. This caused the bonds to fall for 8 ticks as it crossed the R3 Mid Pivot and hit the 100 SMA. It was briefly sustained and left 6 ticks on the wick naked when the bar expired. With JOBB you would have filled short at 133’03 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture only about 2-3 ticks as it did not linger near the bottom for more than 5 sec. Then it bobbed between 133’07 and 133’02 and eventually reversed up for a total of 12 ticks on the :10 bar. Then it backed off and traded sideways mostly above the R3 Mid Pivot.

CL 04-14 (1 Min) 3.12.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Mar 272014

3/12/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 2.15M
Actual: 6.18M
Gasoline
Forecast: -2.03M
Actual: -5.23M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.87M
Actual: -0.53M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 98.51
1st Peak @ 98.20 – 1032 (2 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 98.91 – 1044 (14 min)
71 ticks

Pullback to 98.51 – 1052 (22 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 98.97 – 1101 (31 min)
46 ticks

2nd Peak @ 98.12 – 1116 (46 min)
39 ticks

Notes: Large gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expeced, while gasoline saw a large draw when a moderate draw was expected, and distillates saw a modest draw when a slightly larger modest draw was expected. The mixed news and large draw on gas with large gains on crude indicate refinery capacity is strong. This caused a short reaction of 31 ticks that crossed the 200 SMA and S3 Mid Pivot near the origin, then failed to reach the LOD as it found support at the same level as the low on the 0927 bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 98.41 with no slippage, then seen it give you an opportunity to capture about 10 ticks when it hovered near the low. Then it reversed for 71 ticks in the next 12 min before falling to the 200 SMA 8 min later for 40 ticks. Then it reversed for 46 ticks 9 min later, before falling for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks that reached the LOD. After that it continued to step lower for the next 45 min.

ZC 03-16 (1 Min) 12.9.2015

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Dec 102015

12/9/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 377.00
1st Peak @ 373.75 – 1201:32 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 376.50 – 1206 (6 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 370.25 – 1237 (37 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 374.75 – 1417 (137 min)
18 ticks

Expected Fill: 375.75 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Exit: 374.00 – 7 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 371.50 (below the S2 Mid Pivot) – move up after small spike

Notes: Unusual reaction that was slow to break and about half the size of normal.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 3.13.2014

Retail Sales Comments Off

Mar 282014

3/13/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.3%
Previous revision: -0.3% to -0.3%
Regular Forecast: 0.3%
Regular Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to -0.6%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 132’03 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 131’30 – 0830:15 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Reversal to 132’01 – 0830:32 (1 min)
)))3 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 131’26 – 0833 (3 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 132’00 – 0849 (19 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 131’31 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 131’27 (in between the LOD and S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 132’07 (just below the HOD and R1 Mid Pivot) / 132’11 (no SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report was double booked with unemployment claims, so we used the Trap Trade approach. Most of the news was positive with core retail sales and claims while the broader reading matched and we saw downward previous revisions. This caused a short move of 5 ticks in 15 sec that crossed all 3 major SMAs and hit the S1 Mid Pivot. This would have filled the inner long entry with 1 tick to spare, then backed off to hover between the fill point and +2 ticks. Upon noticing the lack of conflict in the news, look to exit with 1 tick of profit. After the :31 bar, it fell for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks in the next 2 bars to the S1 Pivot, then achieved a reversal of 6 ticks back to the 50 SMA in the next 16 min. After that it trickled lower for a double bottom, then reversed into a long rally after the opening bell for the US session.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 3.13.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 282014

3/13/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 334K
Actual: 315K
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.009748 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009733 – 0830:02 (1 min)
)))-15 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009742 – 0830:36 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Double Bottom @ 0.009733 – 0831:34 (2 min)
)))-9 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.009744 – 0850 (20 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009727 – 0922 (52 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009737 (just below the PP Pivot) / 0.009729 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009760 (on the R2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009769 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in strong with 19K less jobs than the forecast coupled with a mildly bullish retail sales report. This caused a short spike of 15 ticks that crossed the 50/100 SMAs near the origin and the PP Pivot closer to the bottom. This would have filled your inner long entry with 4 ticks to spare, then backed off to hover between 0.009741 and 42 for 10 sec allowing for an exit with 4-5 ticks quickly. If you let it continue, you would have seen it fall for a double bottom twice after the fill, then reverse for 11 ticks in the next 18 min. This would have allowed for a patient 7 ticks to be captured near the 50 SMA. After that it fell for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks, crossing the OOD and S1 Mid Pivot after 30 min.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 4.11.14

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Apr 112014

4/11/2014 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (0955 EST)
Forecast: 81.2
Actual: 82.6
TRAP TRADE (DULL – No Fill)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009853 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 0.009846 – 0955:12 (1 min)
-7 ticks

Reversal to 0.009853 – 0958:23 (4 min)
7 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.009843 – 1002 (7 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.009860 – 1014 (19 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009845 (on the PP Pivot) / 0.009838 (no SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009861 (just above the OOD) / 0.009868 (no SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in moderately higher than the forecast by 1.4 points causing a tame short impulse on the 6J for only 7 ticks as it encountered strong support near the PP Pivot (just like an hour earlier). That would have fallen short of the inner short order by 1 tick at 12 sec into the bar. As I suggested in the alert, if you see it within 1-2 ticks of the tier and stalling, moving the tier closer is a safe play. So moving the long order up to 0.009847 would have filled, then allowed for about 5 ticks to be captured on the :59 bar. After the reversal, it fell for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks to cross the PP Pivot, then reversed for 17 ticks, crossing all 3 major SMAs and reaching the OOD 12 min later.

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