US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 08.30.11

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Aug 302011

8/30/2011 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 52.1
Actual: 44.5
Previous revision: -0.3 to 59.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 88.41
1st Peak @ 87.87 – 0401 (1 min)
54 ticks (2x bottom)

2nd Peak @ 87.64 – 0406 (6 min)
77 ticks

Reversal to 88.29 – 0415 (15 min)
65 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell short of forecast causing a healthy spike, 2nd peak, and follow on minimal reversal . Market peaked just below the 100 SMA , then dropped to the 200 SMA and reversed a level between the 50 SMA / R1 line and the 100 SMA.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 08.26.11

Prelim GDP Comments Off

Aug 262011

8/26/2011 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 1.1%
Actual: 1.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 85.43
1st Peak@ 85.19 / Retrace to 85.51 – 0231 (1 min)
-24 ticks / 8 ticks

Notes: Report was slightly negative causing indecision. JOBB would have gotten you in short then retraced and hovered with about 10 ticks of heat before hitting the 15 tick stop loss. I would close out with 10 ticks loss in this case.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 08.24.11

Durable Goods Comments Off

Aug 242011

8/24/2011 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: -0.3%
Core Actual:0.7%
Previous revision:+0.5% to 0.6%
Regular Forecast: 2.1%
Regular Actual:4.0%
Previous Revision:+0.8% to -1.3%
SPIKE/RETRACE
Started @ 86.17
Peak @ 86.97 – 0235 (5 min)
80 ticks (2x top)

Retrace to 86.61 – 0240 (10 min)
36 ticks

Notes: Strong report came in well above forecast with large correction to previous report causing a healthy spike and minimal follow on reversal. Look for the peak after 4-5 min. If you miss it, wait for it to come back up again to the general area of the 1st peak (the 0241 candle rose to 86.93 – 4 ticks off the peak).

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 08.16.11

Industrial Production Comments Off

Aug 162011

8/16/2011 Monthly Industrial Production (0315 HI time / 0915 EDT)
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual:0.9%
Previous revision:+0.2% to 0.4%
Spike with 2nd Peak
Started @ 87.19
1st Peak@ 87.63 – 0316 (1 min)
44 ticks

2nd Peak@ 87.80 – 0319/0321 (4/6 min)
61 ticks (2x top)

Notes: Strong report above forecast with upward revision of previous report. Retracement on 0317 candle was due to crossing of 200 SMA.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 08.18.11

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Aug 182011

8/18/2011 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 4.0
Actual:-30.7
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 85.24
1st Peak @ 84.25 – 0401 (1 min)
99 ticks

2nd Peak @ 83.75 – 0407 (7 min)
149 ticks

Reversal to 84.56 – 0418 (18 min)
81 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell short of forecast causing a healthy spike, 2nd peak, and follow on reversal . Market was engaged in a downward FAN prior to the report and the market is below the S3 line, so there is no clear point of support to arrest the downward movement. Still with such a shockingly negative report, nothing was priced in and it fell significantly.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 08.16.11

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

Aug 162011

8/16/2011 Monthly Building Permits (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 0.61M
Actual: 0.60M
No previous revision
INDECISIVE REACTION
Started @ 87.31
Peak@ 87.25 / Retrace to 87.41 – 0231 (1 min)

Notes: Report came in close enough to the forecast so the reaction was small and indecisive. Cancel the trade if not filled in 8-10 sec. If you got in the trade, then go for minimal gain or loss.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 08.12.11

Retail Sales Comments Off

Aug 122011

8/12/2011 Monthly Retail Sales (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual:0.5%
Previous revision:+0.2% to 0.2%
Regular Forecast: 0.4%
Regular Actual:0.5%
Previous Revision:+0.2% to 0.3%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 87.00
1st Peak @ 87.58 – 0231 (1 min)
58 ticks

2nd Peak @ 87.69 – 0234 (4 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 87.34 – 0238 (8 min)
35 ticks

Notes: Strong report came in well above forecast causing a healthy spike and smaller reversal . Market continued upward after the report, but not likely due to the influence of the report.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 08.11.11

Trade Balance Comments Off

Aug 112011

8/11/2011 Monthly Trade Balance (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: -47.9B
Actual: -53.1B
Previous Revision: -0.6B to -50.8B
Spike / retrace
Started @ 82.45
1st Peak @ 82.80 – 0231 (1 min)
35 ticks

Retrace to 81.89 – 0234 (4 min)
91 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell short of forecast, and previous report revised mildly downward. Report broke on Thursday at the same time as weekly unemployment claims (mildly exceeding forecast at 395K). I would not trade this report with 2 medium movers breaking at the same time. The long tails on the 0231 and 0232 candles are typical of the unemployment report.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 08.09.11

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Aug 092011

8/9/2011 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (0815 HI time / 1415 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN (with initial spike)
Started @ 81.96 (0819)
1st Peak @ 79.49 – 0824 (5 min)
247 ticks

2nd Peak @ 78.86 – 0846 (27 min)
310 ticks

Reverse to 79.97 – 0855 (36 min) / 80.66 – 0920 (61 min)

Notes: *Report broke 4 min late at 0819. Report was underperforming overall as Bernanke pledged to keep interest rates low to 2013, and 3 FOMC members dissented, the highest # since 1992. A Downward Fan was already in progress (note the unchanged slope of the 50 / 100 / 200 SMAs before and after the report release except for the blip from the pre-report spike. DO NOT USE JOBB for this as it can break up to 10 min early or late. Keep an eye on the news and jump in after the announcement in the direction the market is heading. Low point occurred 27 min after report release.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 08.05.11

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Aug 052011

8/5/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 89K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:117K
Previous Revision: +28K to 46K
Rate Forecast: 9.2%
Rate Actual:9.1%
SPIKE / REVERSAL
Started @ 86.42
Peak @ 89.19 – 0232 (2 min)
277 ticks

Reversal to 87.45 – 0235 (5 min) / 86.97 – 0251 (21 min)
174 ticks / 222 ticks

Notes: Moderately positive report exceeded the forecast causing a gigantic spike and follow on reversal. With the 277 tick explosion, the market is very overbought and the reaction cannot be sustained. Close out at the end of the 0231, or early in the 0232 when it starts to reverse. This would be a great setup to trade the reversal too, yielding 222 ticks (80% reversal) in 20 min.

My best trade ever, where I made $7340 with 4 contracts (I caught about 185 ticks)

Older Entries Newer Entries