US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 9.4.2014

Sep 212014

9/4/2014 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 57.3
Actual: 59.6
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009523
1st Peak @ 0.009518 – 1000:00 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 0.009527 – 1006 (6 min)
9 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.009507 – 1049 (49 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.009520 – 1130 (90 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Strongly positive report exceeded the forecast by 2.3 points. This caused a short reaction of only 5 ticks that started on the 13 and fell to cross the S2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.009520 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with 1 tick in the latter 40 sec of the :31 bar after some retracement. It reversed 9 ticks, crossing the 200SMA and reaching the 50 SMA, presenting a great 2nd peak trade opportunity. A short trade at 0.009525 would have been ideal. It fell for a stepped final peak of 11 more ticks in the next 43 min, using the 13/20 SMAs as resistance and fighting through the S2 Pivot to reach the LOD. A target around 0.009512 would have been safe and prudent for about 13 ticks. After the 2nd peak, it reversed for 13 ticks in 41 min crossing the 50/100 SMAs and reaching the S2 Mid Pivot.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 9.11.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Sep 212014

9/11/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 306K
Actual: 315K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.009346 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009351 – 0830:44 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009348 – 0831:28 (2 min)
)))-3 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.009377 – 0900 (30 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 0.009357 – 0914 (44 min)
20 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009338 (just below the S2 Pivot) / 0.009326 (just above the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009355 (in between the S1 Mid /S1 Pivots) / 0.009366 (just below the PP Pivot)

Notes: Report came in disappointing with 9k offset with no other news to cause a dull 5 tick long spike to the S1 Pivot. This would have fallen several ticks short of the inner short entry, so cancel the order. After a small reversal on the :32 bar, it climbed for a slow developing 2nd peak of 26 more ticks in the next 28 min to reach the HOD. Then it fell 20 ticks in the next 14 min to the S1 Mid Pivot and 50 SMA.

ES 09-14 (1 Min) 9.5.2014

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Sep 232014

9/5/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 226K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 142K
Previous Revision: +3K to 212K
Rate Forecast: 6.1%
Rate Actual: 6.1%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 1990.25 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1994.75 – 0830:07 (1 min)
)))18 ticks

)))Reversal to 1990.00 – 0830:20 (1 min)
)))-19 ticks

)))Pullback to 1996.25 – 0831:22 (2 min)
)))25 ticks

)))Reversal to 1991.50 – 0831:51 (2 min)
)))-19 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 1999.25 – 0843 (13 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 1991.00 – 0902 (32 min)
33 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1984.00 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) / 1980.00 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 1997.00 (just below the OOD) / 1999.75 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Strongly negative report with 84K less jobs added than the forecast, a negligible upward revision to the previous report and a match on the U-3 rate of 6.1%. We saw a long spike of only 18 ticks in the first 7 sec then choppy trading between the peak and just above the 200 SMA for a few sec before a reversal to the origin in the next 10 sec. Then it rebounded for 25 ticks in the next minute. This would have fallen about 8-9 ticks short of the inner short order and it did not offer a great opportunity to manually move the order in closer. However we see the trend after the first 2 bars is to swing between the 1990 – 1991 area and the area around 1996 – 1998 so buying at the bottom and selling at the top each time would have been safe and profitable. The 0843 bar is a bearish indicator (shooting star) and a great short opportunity. It kept swinging until the final reversal ended at 1042, then rallied until the close as the results were interpreted to keep the FED in a dovish mood.

NG 10-14 (1 Min) 9.4.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Sep 252014

9/4/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 72B
Actual: 79B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 3.866
1st Peak @ 3.789 – 1030:01 (1 min)
77 ticks

Reversal to 3.821 – 1033 (3 min)
32 ticks

Pullback to 3.791 – 1039 (9 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 3.818 – 1058 (28 min)
27 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast by 7BCF which caused a quick short spike of 77 ticks after a premature short move of about 8 ticks 1 sec before the report. The spike started on the PP Pivot then fell to cross the 100/200 SMAs, the LOD and the S2 MidPivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.826 with about 30 ticks of slippage, then seen it briefly reverse to just below your stop before falling to hover around 3.800 to 3.797 on the S2 Mid Pivot. Look to exit there for about 25-30 ticks. Then it reversed for 32 ticks in the next 2 bars to cross the S1 Pivot not allowing a great setup for the 3 min reversal. After the reversal it pulled back in the next 6 min to fall just short of a double bottom. Then it reversed 27 ticks in 28 min to cross the S1 Pivot again.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 9.12.2014

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Sep 282014

9/12/2014 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (0955 EDT)
Forecast: 83.2
Actual: 84.6
TRAP TRADE (DULL – No Fill)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009322 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009319 – 0956:36 (2 min)
)))-3 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009323 – 0957:51 (3 min)
)))4 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.009335 – 1017 (22 min)
16 ticks

Pullback to 0.009318 – 1044 (49 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009316 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009306 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009328 (just above the 100 SMA) / 0.009339 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in higher than the forecast by only 1.4 points causing a dull 3 tick short spike after 96 sec as it tested the area of support near the LOD and S2 Mid Pivot, but did not have the impulse and momentum to break through, so it retreated 4 ticks after 1 more min. This would have missed you inner long entry and shown no real movement, so cancel the order. After the initial reversal, it continued to climb for another 12 ticks in the next 20 min, crossing the 200 SMA. Then it pulled back 17 ticks in 27 min to reach the LOD. After that it traded sideways between the S1 Pivot and LOD.

ZC 07-15 (1 Min) 5.12.2015

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

May 162015

5/12/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) / Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 359.25
1st Peak @ 364.00 – 1200:01 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 358.75 – 1200:15 (1 min)
21 ticks

Pullback to 363.75 – 1202 (2 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 358.25 – 1205 (5 min)
22 ticks

2nd Peak @ 365.75 – 1221 (21 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 360.75 – 1233 (33 min)
20 ticks

Pullback to 365.00 – 1250 (50 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a quick long spike for 19 ticks that started on the 50/200 SMAs and climbed to cross the HOD and R1 Pivot in 1 sec. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 361.25 with 3 ticks of slippage. Then it peaked and hovered near the top for 6 sec to give the signal to exit. As mentioned in the alert, look to exit at the first sign of hovering as a reversal is likely coming. So exit with about 5-10 ticks around the R1 Pivot. After that it reversed back to the origin in 14 sec and hovered for 22 sec before climbing for a double top on the next bar. Then it reversed to the OOD for 22 ticks in 3 min before climbing for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks to nearly reach the R2 Pivot in 16 min. Finally it reversed 20 ticks in 12 min to the PP Pivot / 100 SMA before pulling back 17 ticks in 17 min to the R2 Mid Pivot. As the initial reaction swung back and forth about 20 ticks, this would have offered multiple opportunities to buy the dips and sell the tops.

ZS 11-14 (1 Min) 9.11.2014

WASDE - Beans Comments Off

Sep 292014

9/11/2014 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 975.50 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 972.00 – 1200:59 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 982.00 – 1202:48 (3 min)
40 ticks

Pullback to 969.50 – 1223 (23 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 977.25 – 1246 (46 min)
31 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case the initial reaction would have been safe to trade for the second month in a row, but that is often not the case. it would have been tame as it hovered near the S3 Pivot to provide an anchor point at 975.50 at 32 sec. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled at 974.00 with no slippage, then fallen a little more to the S4 Mid Pivot to allow about 6-8 ticks to be captured when it hovered at the bottom of the bar. Since the fill was short and continuing in the initial direction of the spike, look for a smaller target and exit quickly at the first sign of hovering. After that the reversal rebounded for 40 ticks in a little less than 2 min to the S3 Mid Pivot, then pulled back for a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks 20 min later. Then it reversed for 31 ticks back to the S3 Pivot and 50 SMA 23 min later.

NG 10-14 (1 Min) 9.11.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Sep 292014

9/11/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 84B
Actual: 92B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.905
1st Peak @ 3.822 – 1031:24 (2 min)
83 ticks

Reversal to 3.844 – 1039 (9 min)
22 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.815 – 1101 (31 min)
90 ticks

Reversal to 3.831 – 1107 (37 min)
16 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast by 8BCF which caused a quick short spike of 83 ticks with minimal premature noise in the 20 sec leading up to the report. The spike started on the S2 Pivot then fell to cross the 100/50 SMAs, the LOD and the S4 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.875 with about 20 ticks of slippage, then seen it settle down after 4 sec to trade below 3.840 for the rest of the bar. An exit near 3.830 would have been prudent for about 45 ticks. Then it reversed for 22 ticks in the next 9 bars to nearly reach the 13 SMA and S3 Pivot. This would have been an ideal setup for the 3 min reversal with a buy on or below the S4 Mid Pivot and one just above the LOD, then a profit target of 15-20 ticks would have easily filled. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks after 23 min. After that it reversed 16 ticks in 6 min and traded sideways abover the S4 Mid Pivot.

CL 10-14 (1 Min) 9.10.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Sep 292014

9/10/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.11M
Actual: -0.97M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.16M
Actual: 2.38M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.57M
Actual: 4.09M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 92.09
1st Peak @ 91.54 – 1033 (3 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 91.71 – 1053 (23 min)
17 ticks

Final Peak @ 91.22 – 1129 (59 min)
87 ticks

Reversal to 91.74 – 1154 (84 min)
52 ticks

Notes: Negligible draw in inventories when a slightly greater draw was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate gain when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a healthy gain when a negligible gain was expected. This caused a decisive short move that took 3 bars to fall 55 ticks as it stated of the 13/20 SMAs of a downtrend and fell to cross the S2 Pivot and extend the LOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have been filled short at about 91.95 with 4 ticks of slippage, then seen it slowly step lower. This is a case where patience is wise with all products in the green and gas / distillates with large margins. Up to 35+ ticks could have been captured late in the :33 bar. Then it reversed 17 ticks in the next 20 min before falling for a final peak of 32 more ticks in the next 36 min to cross the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 52 ticks in 25 min as it crossed the 100 SMA.

ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 9.17.2014

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Oct 082014

9/17/2014 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 136’12
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 136’23 – 1400:00 (1 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 136’14 – 1400:02 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Pullback to 136’22 – 1400:11 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 136’02 – 1401:19 (2 min)
)))-20 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 135’23 – 1404 (4 min)
31 ticks

Pullback to 136’10 – 1423 (23 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 135’18 – 1541 (101 min)
24 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 136’04 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 135’28 (just below the OOD)
Short entries – 136’20 (just above the HOD/R1 Pivot) / 136’28 (above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The FED chose to continue tapering QE3 by $10B as expected down to $15B a month, saying nothing significant has happened to cause a deviation from the course of action. They also pledged to maintain interest rates low for a considerable time after the QE ends. This caused a long move of 11 ticks instantly followed by a retreat of 9 ticks, then a pullback after 9 seconds that collapsed nicely after that. This would have filled you inner short entry with 3 ticks to spare, then worked out well as it fell into the :02 bar allowing about 17 ticks to be captured where it hovered. Though more ticks could have been captured by waiting, we strongly advise getting out quickly after the initial reversal and first sign of hovering as all following action is unpredictable. It continued to fall another 11 ticks in the next 2 min to reach the S1 Pivot. Then it pulled back 19 ticks in 19 min back to the 200 SMA / PP Pivot. After that it reversed to the S2 Mid Pivot in the next 80 min as it headed into the session close.

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