US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

NG 03-15 (1 Min) 2.5.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 152015

2/5/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -119B
Actual: -115B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.622
1st Peak @ 2.578 – 1030:10 (1 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 2.619 – 1032 (2 min)
41 ticks

Pullback to 2.589 – 1033 (3 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 2.626 – 1039 (9 min)
37 ticks

Notes: We saw a smaller draw on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a moderate short move that fell quickly to cross the S2 Mid Pivot then retreat late in the bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled around 2.597 with 15 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen it chop around the fill point before settling to hover around 2.583 for 7 sec. Look to exit there with about 14 ticks. Then it reversed 41 ticks to the 13 SMA on the next bar before pulling back 30 ticks it the S2 Mid Pivot on the following bar. Then it reversed 37 ticks in 6 min to the 50/100 SMAs. After that it drifted lower and chopped sideways.

NG 03-15 (1 Min) 2.12.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 152015

2/12/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -165B
Actual: -160B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.784
1st Peak @ 2.736 – 1030:11 (1 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 2.777 – 1042 (12 min)
41 ticks

Final Peak @ 2.679 – 1138 (68 min)
105 ticks

Reversal to 2.717 – 1153 (83 min)
38 ticks

Notes: We saw a smaller draw on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a moderate short move that fell quickly to cross the S1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled around 2.760 with about 14 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen it drift lower and hover around 2.740 for 7 sec. Look to exit there with about 20 ticks. Then it reversed 41 ticks to the 20 SMA in the next 11 min before falling for a final peak of 57 more ticks in 56 min. Then it reversed 38 ticks in 15 min to the 50 SMA.

NG 03-15 (1 Min) 2.19.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 152015

2/19/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -110B
Actual: -111B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 2.827
1st Peak @ 2.804 – 1030:00 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 2.853 – 1030:32 (1 min)
51 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.786 – 1041 (11 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 2.866 – 1107 (37 min)
80 ticks

Final Peak @ 2.772 – 1208 (98 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 2.804 – 1219 (109 min)
32 ticks

Notes: We saw a near matching draw on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused an indecisive reaction with a quick short move that fell 23 ticks to hit the LOD then promptly reverse for 51 ticks to the 200 SMA. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled around 2.810 with about 7 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen your stop taken 2 sec later with minimal slippage for about a 22 tick loss. Due to the matching results, it settled into a roller coaster routine as it fell from the reversal for a 2nd peak of 18 more ticks to the PP Pivot in 10 min before reversing 80 ticks in 26 min to the R1 Pivot. Then it fell for a final peak of 14 more ticks to the S1 Mid Pivot in an hour before reversing 32 ticks to the 50 SMA in 11 min. These moves presented great opportunities to buy the lows and sell the tops.

NG 04-15 (1 Min) 2.26.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 152015

2/26/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -241B
Actual: -219B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.831
1st Peak @ 2.731 – 1031:23 (2 min)
100 ticks

Reversal to 2.753 – 1034 (4 min)
22 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.723 – 1036 (6 min)
108 ticks

Reversal to 2.747 – 1039 (9 min)
24 ticks

Notes: We saw a smaller draw on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a large short move that fell quickly to cross the S2 Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled around 2.790 with about 30 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen it continue to fall until it hovered around 2.745 for 7 sec midway through the :31 bar. Look to exit there with about 45 ticks. After the hovering it reversed about 12 ticks and then fell further, but it is safe and conservative to exit when hovering is observed. After the low was achieved at 2.731, it reversed 22 ticks in the next 4 min before falling for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks in 2 min. Then it reversed 24 ticks in 3 min and traded sideways.

ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 2.12.2015

Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 152015

2/12/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: -0.4%
Core Actual: -0.9%
Previous revision: +0.1% to -0.9%
Regular Forecast: -0.4%
Regular Actual: -0.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
Unemployment claims
Forecast: 282K
Actual: 304K
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 146’01
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 146’10 – 0830:05 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Reversal to 146’07 – 0830:11 (1 min)
)))-3 ticks

)))Pullback to 146’12 – 0830:22 (1 min)
)))5 ticks
————
Reversal to 146’07 – 0833 (3 min)
5 ticks

Final Peak @ 147’06 – 0959 (89 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 146’24 – 1034 (124 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 145’28 (just above the S2 Pivot) / 145’25 (just above the LOD)
Short entries – 146’06 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 146’09 (no SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report was double booked with unemployment claims with all results coming in much weaker than the forecast. This caused a long move of 9 ticks initially in 5 sec. This would have filled both short entries with 1 tick to spare for an average long position at 146’07.5. It reversed for only 3 ticks to allow an exit at 146’07 or 146’08 with 1 tick loss or profit. Look to exit quickly after a small retreat since it is likely to continue to step higher on such biased news. It ran into resistance on the S1 Pivot before climbing for a final peak of 26 more ticks in the next 86 min as it eclipsed the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 14 ticks in 35 min to the 100 SMA / PP Pivot.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 2.12.2015

Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 152015

2/12/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims / Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Forecast: 282K
Actual: 304K
Core Rtl Sales
Forecast: -0.4%
Actual: -0.9%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to -0.9%
Rtl Sales
Forecast: -0.4%
Actual: -0.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008355
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008383 – 0830:25 (1 min)
)))28 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008371 – 0830:55 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.008379 – 0831:22 (2 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008368 – 0832:43 (3 min)
)))-11 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008390 – 0842 (12 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 0.008368 – 0859 (29 min)
22 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.008408 – 0946 (76 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 0.008386 – 1017 (107 min)
22 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008344 (just below the R1 Pivot) / 0.008335 (on the R1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008366 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008375 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: All the news came in very weak to cause a long reaction of 22 ticks in 3 sec and another 6 ticks in the following 22 sec to eclipse the R2 Pivot. This would have filled both of your short entries with 8 ticks to spare and just within the stop. This would have put you short with an average position of 0.008370.5. The initial reversal would fallen to allow an exit with 1 tick loss. If you waited until after the pullback and ensuing reversal, you could have secured 3-5 ticks of profit as it hovered between 0.008368 and 68 for 10 sec. After that it rallied for a 2nd peak for 7 more ticks in 9 min before reversing 22 ticks in 17 min to the 50 SMA. Then it climbed for a slow developing final peak for 18 more ticks in 47 min as it eclipsed the R3 Mid Pivot. After that it reversed 22 ticks in 31 min to the 100 SMA.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 2.13.2015

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Mar 152015

2/13/2015 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (1000 EST)*Late time change
Forecast: 98.2
Actual: 93.6
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.0008404 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008415 – 1000:02 (1 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008408 – 1001:01 (2 min)
)))-7 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008435 – 1005 (5 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 0.008419 – 1034 (34 min)
16 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008398 (just above the OOD) / 0.008390 (just below the LOD)
Short entries – 0.008410 (just above the 50 SMA) / 0.008419 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: The report came in lower than the forecast by 4.6 points causing an 11 tick long move in 2 sec. This would have filled your inner short entry and missed the outer tier by 4 ticks then fallen 7 ticks in the next min to allow an exit with 1-2 ticks at 0.008408 where it hovered for over 30 sec. Then it rallied for a 2nd peak of 20 more ticks in 3 min as it eclipsed the R1 Mid Pivot before reversing 16 ticks in 29 min to the 50 SMA.

ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 2.18.2015

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Mar 172015

2/18/2015 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER STOPPED (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 144’08 (shift to 147’28)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 144’22 – 1400:15 (1 min)
)))14 ticks

)))Reversal to 144’15 – 1400:56 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 145’07 – 1437 (37 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 144’17 – 1548 (108 min)
22 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 144’03 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 144’00 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 144’13 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 144’17 (just below the HOD)

Notes: The minutes revealed that the FED was still accommodative to dovish policy while taking a tolerant approach to risk assets and in no hurry to evaluate economic growth as a precursor for a rate hike. This caused a quick long spike of 14 ticks in 15 sec as it climbed to eclipse the PP Pivot and extend the HOD. This would have filled both short entries then the stop to the tick at 144’22 for a 14 tick loss. This was unfortunate as it reversed 7 ticks in the next few sec to allow an exit with 2-4 ticks loss had the stop been 1 tick larger. Still the trend of the small moves and reversals in the season of tapering easing is now over. It continued to rally after the reversal for another 17 ticks to eclipse the R1 Mid Pivot in 36 min before reversing 22 ticks in 71 min to the 200 SMA.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 2.19.2015

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Mar 172015

2/19/2015 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EST)
Forecast: 8.8
Actual: 5.2
Previous revision: n/a
DULL REACTION…SPIKE/ REVERSE
Started @ 0.008407
1st Peak @ 0.008415 – 1001:45 (2 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.008403 – 1029 (29 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report fell mildly short of the forecast with a delta of 3.6 pts, causing a slow developing long spike of 8 ticks that started on the 13 SMA and rose to eclipse the PP Pivot after nearly 2 min. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at 0.008410 with no slippage after 7 sec then hovered near your fill point for most of the :01 bar before climbing another 4 ticks on the :32 bar. It would have been safe and conservative to exit near break even with the hovering, but this is a small moving report and the PP Pivot was also a few ticks away, so waiting would be low risk. After the peak, it fell to hover around 0.008409 for about 10 min, then fell another 8 ticks to the 100/200 SMAs after about 15 min.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 2.19.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 172015

2/19/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 293K
Actual: 283K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008401
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span 0.008400 – 0.008403 – 0831 (1 min)
)))3 ticks
————
1st peak @ 0.008395 – 0834 (4 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.008400 – 0837 (7 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008392 – 0846 (16 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008401 – 0906 (36 min)
9 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008391 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 0.008382 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008410 (just above the 200 SMA) / 0.008421 (just below the OOD)

Notes: Report came in better than expected with 10k offset. This caused minimal movement with only 3 ticks span on the :31 bar making it an easy decision to cancel the order. After that, it fell in a tame delayed move for 6 ticks in 3 min for the 1st peak to extend the LOD followed by a 5 tick reversal to the 13 SMA in 3 min. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks in 9 min before reversing 9 ticks back to the S1 Mid Pivot.

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