US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 04-15 (1 Min) 2.19.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Mar 182015

2/19/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EST)
Forecast: 3.23M
Actual: 7.72M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.17M
Actual: 0.49M
Distillates
Forecast: -2.05M
Actual: -3.81M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 50.41
1st Peak @ 51.60 – 1101:49 (1 min)
119 ticks

Reversal to 50.61 – 1108 (8 min)
99 ticks

2nd Peak @ 52.39 – 1147 (47 min)
198 ticks

Reversal to 51.70 – 1155 (55 min)
69 ticks

Continued Reversal to 51.32 – 1237 (97 min)
107 ticks

Notes: Another large gain in inventories when a healthy gain was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a lower negligible gain was expected, and distillates saw a moderate draw when a modest draw was expected. This caused a large long spike that started on the 100 SMA and climbed for a total of 119 ticks in nearly 2 min as it crossed the major SMAs near the origin, the OOD, and extended the HOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at about 50.55 with 4 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it slowly step higher with minimal drawback to allow over 100 ticks to be captured with patience. After that it reversed strongly as it fell 99 ticks in 7 min to the 50 SMA. Then it rallied for a 2nd peak of 79 more ticks in 39 min as it eclipsed the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed 69 ticks in 8 min to nearly reach the S2 Pivot and another 38 ticks in 42 min as it crossed the 100 SMA and nearly reached the OOD.

ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 2.24.2015

FED Testimony Comments Off

Mar 192015

2/24/2015 FED Chairman Yellen Testimony (1000 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 145’00
1st Peak @ 145’05 – 1000:08 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 144’18 – 1003 (3 min)
19 ticks

Pullback to 145’05 – 1008 (8 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 144’30 – 1011 (11 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 145’17 – 1018 (18 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 144’30 – 1029 (29 min)
19 ticks

Double Top @ 145’18 – 1049 (49 min)
20 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Yellen testified on the semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee. She testified that they will look at several indicators to evaluate the status of inflation and employment. This caused a roller coaster reaction for the bonds that rose 5 ticks in 8 sec before reversing 19 ticks in the next 2 min to eclipse the S1 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 145’03 with no slippage then seen your stop taken for a 5 tick loss a few seconds later. After the reversal it pulled back 19 ticks to match the 1st peak in 5 min before reversing 7 ticks in 3 min to the SMAs. Then it ascended for a 2nd peak of 12 more ticks in 7 min as it eclipsed the R1 Mid Pivot before reversing 19 ticks in 11 min to the 100 SMA. Then it climbed for a double top in 20 min and traded sideways to end the roller coaster.

ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 2.26.2015

7y Bond Auction Comments Off

Mar 192015

2/26/2015 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 1.59/2.5
Actual: 1.83/2.4
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 146’29 (1301)
1st Peak @ 146’25 – 1301:43 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 147’02 – 1323 (22 min)
9 ticks

Pullback to 146’29 – 1330 (29 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 147’09 – 1349 (48 min)
20 ticks

Pullback to 146’27 – 1405 (64 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks after 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 1.83 rose from last month while the bid to cover ratio tapered slightly to 2.4. This caused the bonds to fall 4 ticks after starting on the 13 SMA and falling to nearly reach the OOD. With JOBB and a 2 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 146’27 with no slippage. Look to exit at 146’25 with 2 ticks where it hovered late in the :03 bar. After hovering for a few min, it reversed 9 ticks in 21 min to the 100/200 SMASs. Then it pulled back 5 ticks in 7 min before reversing to eclipse the R1 Pivot in 19 min. Then it pulled back 14 ticks in 16 min.

ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 2.27.2015

Prelim GDP Comments Off

Mar 202015

2/27/2015 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0830 EST)
Forecast: 2.1%
Actual: 2.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 146’21
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 146’16 – 0830:15 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Reversal to 146’22 – 0830:39 (1 min)
)))6 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 146’14 – 0835 (5 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 146’24 – 0842 (12 min)
10 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 146’17 (in between the 50/100 SMAs) / 146’13 (just above the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 146’25 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 146’29 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.1%, causing a short spike of 5 ticks in 15 sec that started on the OOD and fell to reach the 100 SMA before reversing. This would have filled the inner long entry with 1 tick to spare. As it reversed, it hovered at 146’21 +/- 1 tick for 5 sec allowing an easy quick exit for about 4 ticks. After that it fell for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks in 4 min to the 200 SMA before reversing 10 ticks to the S1 Mid Pivot in 8 min.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 2.26.2015

Durable Goods, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 202015

2/26/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 288K
Actual: 313K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008415
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008423 – 0830:53 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008400 – 0832:04 (3 min)
)))-23 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008409 – 0837 (7 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008388 – 0902 (32 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008403 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 0.008397 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008425 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.008433 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in worse than expected with 25k offset. Durable Goods were offsetting as was CPI. This caused a delayed move that climbed 8 ticks at the end of the :31 bar to cross the 200 SMA and hit the R1 Pivot. Then it reversed 23 ticks in a little over a minute as it crossed the S1 Pivot. The move would have been too slow and small to breach the tier, so cancel the order. After that, it pulled back 9 ticks in 4 min to the S1 Mid Pivot before reversing for 21 ticks as it crossed the S2 Pivot.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 3.2.2015

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 262015

3/2/2015 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 53.4
Actual: 52.9
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008349
1st Peak @ 0.008341 – 1000:59 (3 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.008347 – 1002 (2 min)
6 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.008323 – 1101 (61 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.008330 – 1106 (66 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast with a deviation of 0.5 pts. This caused an initial short spike of 8 ticks that started on the 100 SMA and fell 8 ticks slowly over the course of the :01 bar. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 0.008345 with no slippage. It fell slowly to allow 2-3 ticks to be captured as it hovered, but with no support barrier around, you could afford to be patient. After a reversal of 6 ticks in the next bar, it continued to fall for another 18 ticks in the next hour as it reached the S2 Pivot. Then it reversed 7 ticks in 5 min to the 50 SMA.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 3.4.2015

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Mar 272015

3/4/2015 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 219K
Actual: 212K
Previous revision: +37K to 250K
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008362 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008351 – 0815:02 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008360 – 0815:08 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.008354 – 0815:21 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.008371 – 0822 (7 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 0.008363 – 0831 (16 min)
8 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008352 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008342 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008370 (just above the HOD) / 0.008382 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in 7k below the forecast offset by a large upward previous revision to cause a quick 11 tick short spike to the S1 Mid Pivot followed by a reversal of 9 ticks in the next 6 sec to the PP Pivot. This would have filled your inner long entry perfectly with 1 tick to spare then allowed 7-8 ticks to be captured immediately, or more later if you were patient. After the immediate reversal, it pulled back 6 ticks 13 sec later to the OOD area before reversing 17 ticks in the next 6 min to the HOD. It would have been safe to wait for a larger reversal than the initial 9 ticks since the report was conflicting between the current result and past revision. After the reversal it pulled back 8 ticks in 9 min.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 3.4.2015

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 272015

3/4/2015 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 56.5
Actual: 56.9
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008358
1st Peak @ 0.008350 – 1001:09 (2 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.008360 – 1014 (14 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.4 pts. This caused a 8 tick short spike that started below the PP Pivot and fell to cross the S1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 0.008355 with no slippage, then you would have seen it trickle lower to hover as the :01 bar transitioned on the S1 Mid Pivot to allow an exit with 4-5 ticks. After that it reversed 10 ticks in the next 12 min to the PP Pivot and traded sideways.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 3.5.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 282015

3/5/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 293K
Actual: 320K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008310
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008320 – 0830:06 (1 min)
)))10 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008312 – 0830:18 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008322 – 0834 (4 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.008312 – 0847 (17 min)
10 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008300 (just above the S4 Mid Pivot) / 0.008290 (just above the S4 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008320 (just above the 100 SMA) / 0.008329 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in worse than expected with 27k offset. This caused a quick and unsustainable long spike of 10 ticks that would have touched the inner short entry on the 100 SMA but not filled. Since it retreated quickly, cancel the order with no fill. It reversed 8 ticks in 12 sec back to the S3 Pivot before climbing for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks to the 200 SMA in 3 min. Then it reversed 10 ticks in 13 min to the S3 Pivot.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 3.13.2015

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Mar 282015

3/13/2015 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (1000 EST)
Forecast: 95.6
Actual: 91.2
Previous Revision: +1.8 to 95.4
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008231 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008238 – 1000:00 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008227 – 1001:46 (2 min)
)))-11 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008239 – 1009 (9 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.008233 – 1014 (14 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008225 (just below the LOD) / 0.008216 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008237 (in between the 100 SMA / S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008246 (just below the HOD)

Notes: The report came in lower than the forecast by 4.4 points but was offset by a moderate upward previous revision causing a 7 tick long move immediately. This would have filled your inner short entry with 1 tick to spare, then fallen gradually for 11 ticks in the next 1.5 min. Look to exit just below the 20 SMA with about 8 ticks. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak that achieved 1 more tick in 7 min before reversing 6 ticks in 5 min to the 50 SMA.

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