US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 1.29.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 022015

1/29/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 301K
Actual: 265K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.008484 (shift to 0.008497)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008474 – 0830:38 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008478 – 0830:50 (1 min)
)))4 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008467 – 0838 (8 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.008490 – 0903 (33 min)
23 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008475 (just below the 100 SMA) / 0.008465 (just above the LOD)
Short entries – 0.008492 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008502 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Report came in much better than expected with 36k offset. This caused an initial short spike of only 6 ticks then trickled lower. As it was slowly approaching the inner long entry around the 20 sec threshold, cancel the order. With the large offset and slow approach, a strong reversal is unlikely while a 2nd peak is probable. Sure enough, it achieved 10 ticks to the 100 SMA, then reversed only 4 ticks briefly before falling for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks in 7 min as it crossed the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 23 ticks, crossing all 3 major SMAs and nearly reached the S1 Mid Pivot.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 2.5.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 032015

2/5/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 287K
Actual: 278K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008513
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008508 – 0830:04 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008516 – 0831:36 (2 min)
)))8 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.008523 – 0852 (22 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008502 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008495 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008524 (just above the 200 SMA) / 0.008531 (just above the OOD)

Notes: Report came in better than expected with 9k offset while the concurrently booked trade balance came in 8.4B worse than expected. This caused an initial short spike of only 5 ticks followed by a reversal of 8 ticks after 96 sec. This would have fallen short of the inner long tier by 6 ticks and was fleeting, so cancel the order. After the reversal, it climbed another 7 ticks in 20 min to eclipse the 200 SMA.

CL 03-15 (1 Min) 2.4.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Mar 092015

2/4/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 3.47M
Actual: 6.33M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.07M
Actual: 2.34M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.83M
Actual: 1.79M
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 50.82
1st Peak @ 50.20 – 1030:57 (1 min)
62 ticks

Reversal to 50.46 – 1035 (5 min)
26 ticks

2nd Peak @ 50.05 – 1037 (7 min)
77 ticks

Reversal to 50.66 – 1045 (15 min)
61 ticks

Final Peak @ 50.01 – 1104 (34 min)
65 ticks

Reversal to 50.66 – 1117 (47 min)
65 ticks

Notes: Another large gain in inventories when a healthy gain was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate gain when a negligible gain was expected, and distillates saw a modest gain when a modest draw was expected. This caused a short move that started on the S1 Pivot and immediately fell 27 ticks and hovered for about 8 sec before retracing 36 ticks. Then it fell to the peak for another 35 ticks as the :31 bar expired. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at about 50.68 with 4 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it hover between breakeven and about 7 ticks of profit before it retraced to hit the unmoved to stop at 50.83 for a 15 tick loss. This was unfortunate as all the news was consistently bearish and the report decisively fell after the retracement. After the spike, it reversed 26 ticks in 4 min to the old LOD position before falling for a 2nd peak of 15 more ticks. Then it reversed 61 ticks in 8 min to the 50 SMA before falling for a final peak of 4 more ticks in 19 min. Then it reversed 65 ticks in 13 min and continued to chop. As before a strategy of selling the highs would have been prudent and profitable. As before a strategy of selling the highs would have been prudent with the strong supply side results.

CL 03-15 (1 Min) 2.11.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Mar 092015

2/11/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 3.73M
Actual: 4.87M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.20M
Actual: 1.98M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.82M
Actual: -3.25M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 48.74
1st Peak @ 48.05 – 1031:19 (2 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 48.45 – 1033 (3 min)
40 ticks

Pullback to 48.18 – 1035 (5 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 50.01 – 1223 (113 min)
183 ticks

Notes: Another large gain in inventories when a healthy gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest gain when a negligible gain was expected, and distillates saw a moderate draw when a negligible draw was expected. This caused a short move that started on the 13 SMA and fell slowly and methodically for 69 ticks in about 80 sec. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at about 48.61 with 3 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it fall and eclipse the S2 Pivot allowing up to 55 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed 40 ticks in 2 min before pulling back 27 ticks in 2 min to fall short of the S2 Pivot. Then it reversed 183 ticks in 108 min to the S1 Mid Pivot.

ES 03-15 (1 Min) 2.6.2015

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Mar 122015

2/6/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 236K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 257K
Previous Revision: +77K to 329K
Rate Forecast: 5.6%
Rate Actual: 5.7%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 2055.50
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 2060.75 – 0830:04 (1 min)
)))21 ticks

)))Reversal to 2057.75 – 0830:11 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Pullback to 2063.25 – 0831:23 (2 min)
)))22 ticks

)))Reversal to 2057.50 – 0832:55 (3 min)
)))-23 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 2065.50 – 0847 (17 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 2057.00 – 0935 (65 min)
34 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 2049.00 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 2045.50 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 2062.00 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 2065.25 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Strong report with 21K more jobs added than the forecast, a healthy upward revision to the previous report along with a 0.1% increase in the U-3 rate of 0.1% to 5.7% due to the labor force expanding. We saw a small long spike of only 21 ticks in the first 4 sec to eclipse the HOD but fall short of the R1 Pivot. This would have been about 5 ticks short of the inner short entry and it hovered for about 4 sec to be allow a marginal chance to shift the tier lower. If you did, you would have filled short at about 2059.75 then had an opportunity a few sec later to exit with 5-6 ticks on a small reversal. If you did not try the manual shift, cancel the order. It gained another 22 ticks to eclipse the R1 Pivot about 1 min later. Then it reversed 23 ticks on the next bar to the 13 SMA. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak of 19 more ticks to eclipse the R2 Mid Pivot in 14 min before falling 34 ticks in 48 min to the R1 Mid Pivot.

ZC 03-15 (1 Min) 1.12.2015

Grain Stocks, WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Feb 092015

1/12/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) / Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 397.50
1st Peak @ 407.00 – 1200:22 (1 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 390.25 – 1201:41 (2 min)
67 ticks

Pullback to 403.00 – 1206 (6 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 393.50 – 1212 (12 min)
38 ticks

Pullback to 406.00 – 1326 (86 min)
50 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a roller coaster type reaction. It climbed 38 ticks, crossing the R2 Pivot then hovered before reversing around 20 sec after the top of the hour. This is very common with this report and was advised in the alert. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 398.75 with no slippage as the initial ascent was slow and tame. Then it hovered around 406.00 for 10 sec to allow an exit for about 25-30 ticks. Then it reversed 67 ticks in about 80 sec to nearly reach the S3 Mid Pivot before pulling back 51 ticks in 4 min to the R1 Pivot. Then it reversed 38 ticks in 6 min to the S2 Mid Pivot before pulling back 50 ticks in 74 min to the R2 Pivot.

ZS 03-15 (1 Min) 2.10.2015

WASDE - Beans Comments Off

Mar 132015

2/10/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 978.50 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 986.00 – 1201:10 (1 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 972.25 – 1204 (4 min)
55 ticks

Pullback to 981.00 – 1212 (12 min)
35 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case the initial reaction would have been choppy and marginally safe if you were patient past the first 30 sec, but the alternate approach wins out again. As usual, it would have been fairly tame as it hovered around the PP Pivot to provide an anchor point at 978.50 at 32 sec. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 980.00 with no slippage, then you would have seen it climb steadily for about 30 sec to cross the R1 Pivot and nearly reach the R2 Mid Pivot for 30 ticks. It hovered near the top for 7 sec to provide a trigger to exit with at least 20 ticks. Then it reversed 55 ticks in 2 min to cross the S1 Pivot and nearly reach the LOD. Then it pulled back 35 ticks in 8 min to the R1 Mid Pivot. We advised on the alert when the fill is in the same direction as the first spike to exit quickly and have a smaller profit goal. Along with that, it offered a great reversal trade opportunity.

ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 2.11.2015

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Mar 132015

2/11/2015 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 1.93/2.6
Actual: 2.00/2.6
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 146’16 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 146’24 – 1301:37 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 146’18 – 1302:38 (2 min)
)))-6 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 147’02 – 1321 (20 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 146’28 – 1325 (24 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 146’11 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) / 146’08 (just above the LOD)
Short entries – 146’21 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 146’24 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose slightly from last month’s auction. This caused the ZB to pop long for 8 ticks to cross the S1 Mid Pivot and collapes. This would have filled the inner short entry, but just missed the outer short entry. Then it fell to hover for over a minute at 146’19 to allow an exit with about 2 ticks. Then it rallied for a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks in 18 min after crossing the PP Pivot and the OOD, but falling just short of the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 6 ticks in 4 min back to the OOD. It continued to oscillate for the next hour or so around the PP Pivot.

ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 2.12.2015

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

Mar 142015

2/12/2015 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.43/2.3
Actual: 2.56/2.3
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 147’07 (1301)
1st Peak @ 146’30 – 1301:35 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 147’03 – 1303 (2 min)
5 ticks

Final Peak @ 146’17 – 1354 (53 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 146’26 – 1417 (76 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rebounded moderately after the sharp fall last month. This caused the bonds to fall 9 ticks at 1:35 then back off after crossing the 200 SMA / R1 Mid Pivot. It started just below the old HOD position and got stuck in between the 100 / 200 SMAs and the R1 Mid Pivot for most of the initial reaction. With JOBB you would have filled short at 147’03 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it hover around the fill point for a few sec before trickling lower for a double bottom about 2 min after the report broke. A well placed target at 146’31 (just below the 200 SMA) would have secured 4 ticks. After that it stepped lower for a final peak of 13 more ticks to the S1 Mid Pivot in 51 min. Then it reversed 9 ticks in 23 min to cross the PP Pivot and nearly reach the 100 SMA.

ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 3.12.2015

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

Mar 142015

3/12/2015 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.56/2.3
Actual: 2.68/2.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 160’03 (1301)
1st Peak @ 159’14 – 1302:30 (2 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 159’21 – 1307 (6 min)
7 ticks

Final Peak @ 159’00 – 1321 (20 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 160’00 – 1438 (97 min)
32 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield continued to rebound. This caused the bonds to fall for a huge spike of 14 ticks at 1:35 to the R1 Mid Pivot, then continue to trickle lower for another 7 ticks to nearly reach the OOD in the next minute. With JOBB you would have filled short at 159’28 with about 4 ticks of slippage, then seen it continue to fall and hover between 159’16 and 17 to allow 11-12 ticks to be captured. After the spike, it reversed 7 ticks to reach the R1 Mid Pivot in the next 4 min before stepping lower to a final peak of 14 more ticks to the PP Pivot / LOD in 14 min. Then it reclaimed all the lost ground as it reversed 32 ticks in 77 min after crossing the 200 SMA.

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