US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 06-15 (1 Min) 4.29.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

May 052015

4/29/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.30M
Actual: 1.91M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.22M
Actual: 1.71M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.17M
Actual: -0.70M
INDECISIVE…UPWARD FAN
Started @ In between 57.31 and 57.20
Premature Spike to 57.19 – 1029:59 (0 min)

1st Peak @ 57.82 – 1030:22 (1 min)
63 ticks

Reversal to 57.60 – 1030:55 (1 min)
22 ticks

2nd Peak @ 58.19 – 1036 (6 min)
100 ticks

Reversal to 57.84 – 1046 (16 min)
35 ticks

Final Peak @ 59.33 – 1250 (140 min)
214 ticks

Reversal to 58.92 – 1308 (158 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Modest gain in inventories when a slightly higher modest gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest gain when a negligible gain was expected, and distillates saw a negligible draw when a modest gain was expected. This caused a premature short move at 1029:57 for about 17 ticks as the bracket would have established. If the bracket anchor point was 57.29 or higher, you would have been filled short, then stopped as it reversed upon the news release. If your anchor was lower, you would have filled long with higher slippage, but would have been able to profit off of the report . Since the results are variable, we will categorize this as an indecisive report. After the 63 tick spike 1st peak, it reversed 22 ticks in 33 sec before climbing for a 2nd peak of 37 more ticks in 5 min. Then it reversed 35 ticks in 10 min to the 20 SMA before climbing another 114 ticks in about 2 hrs to the R3 Pivot for the final peak. After that it reversed 41 ticks to the 50 SMA.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 5.5.2015

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 072015

5/5/2015 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 56.2
Actual: 57.8
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.008320
Premature spike to 0.008325 – 0959:59 (0 min)
5 ticks

1st Peak @ 0.008309 – 1000:45 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008329 – 1023 (23 min)
20 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.008356 – 1108 (68 min)
47 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 1.6 pts. We saw an unfortunate premature long move of only 5 ticks to the OOD 1 sec before the report release prior to the true spike of 11 ticks short. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long entry would have filled at 0.008323 with no slippage, then you would have seen it fall to hit the 8 tick stop with no slippage. Then it continued to trickle lower for another 6 ticks later in the bar to cross the 200 SMA and S1 Pivot. After that it reversed 20 ticks in 22 min to cross the OOD / S1 Mid Pivot, then another 27 ticks in 45 min to cross the R1 Pivot.

NG 06-15 (1 Min) 5.7.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

May 112015

5/7/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 75B
Actual: 76B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.788
1st Peak @ 2.741 – 1030:07 (1 min)
47 ticks

Reversal to 2.778 – 1032 (2 min)
37 ticks

Pullback to 2.743 – 1041 (11 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 2.764 – 1044 (14 min)
21 ticks

Pullback to 2.741 – 1051 (21 min)
23 ticks

Notes: We saw a near matching gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a moderate short move that fell to reach the S1 Pivot, and extend the LOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled around 2.765 with 13 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen it fall and chop above the S1 Pivot. Look to exit there with about 18 ticks. After that it reversed 37 ticks in 1 min to nearly reach the PP Pivot before pulling back 35 ticks for a near double bottom in 9 min. Then it reversed 21 ticks in 3 min to the S1 Mid Pivot before pulling back 23 ticks to the LOD in 7 min. After that it trended lower for the next few hours.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 5.7.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 122015

5/7/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims / Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 277K
Actual: 265K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008392
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008388 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))-4 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008392 – 0830:04 (1 min)
)))4 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008381 – 0833 (3 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008386 – 0835 (5 min)
5 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.008379 – 0850 (20 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.008386 – 0902 (32 min)
7 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008383 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008373 (in between the OOD / S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008400 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.008412 (just below the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast with 12k offset. This caused a quick short spike of only 4 ticks in 1 sec that crossed the R1 Mid Pivot. This would have fallen short of the inner long entry at 0.008383 by 5 ticks and the move was too tame, so cancel the order. It chopped between the origin and R1 Mid Pivot for 23 sec before heading lower 7 ticks for a 2nd peak in 2 min. Then it reversed 5 ticks in 2 min before falling for a final peak of 2 more ticks in 15 min to reach the PP Pivot. Then it reversed 7 ticks in 12 min to the 50 SMA and traded sideways.

CL 06-15 (1 Min) 5.6.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

May 132015

5/6/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.50M
Actual: -3.88M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.87M
Actual: 0.40M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.12M
Actual: 1.50M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 62.04
1st Peak @ 62.56 – 1030:22 (1 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 62.31 – 1030:40 (1 min)
25 ticks

Double Top @ 62.58 – 1033 (3 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 61.81 – 1041 (11 min)
77 ticks

Pullback to 62.11 – 1052 (22 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 60.63 – 1142 (72 min)
148 ticks

Notes: First time since early January that the crude figures saw a draw. Moderate draw in inventories when a modest gain was expected, while gasoline saw a lesser negligible gain when a negligible gain was expected, and distillates saw a modest gain when a negligible draw was expected. This caused a long spike of 52 ticks with all but 8 ticks coming immediately after crossing the R3 Pivot. Then it achieved the peak in 21 more sec. After that it reversed with the resistance of the R3 Pivot overcoming the big draw to fall 25 ticks in 18 sec to the R3 Pivot before climbing for a double top 2 min later. Then it reversed 77 ticks in 8 min to the 200 SMA. After that it pulled back 30 ticks in 11 min to the old HOD position before reversing 148 ticks in 50 min to the LOD.

ES 06-15 (1 Min) 5.8.2015

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

May 132015

5/8/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 228K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 223K
Previous Revision: -41K to 85K
Rate Forecast: 5.4%
Rate Actual: 5.4%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 2088.50 (on the OOD)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 2100.75 – 0830:39 (1 min)
)))49 ticks

)))Reversal to 2094.25 – 0831:41 (2 min)
)))26 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 2106.75 – 0844 (14 min)
73 ticks

Reversal to 2101.25 – 0850 (20 min)
22 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 2083.00 (just below the LOD) / 2078.50 (in between the PP and S1 Mid Pivots)
Short entries – 2095.25 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot) / 2099.00 (just below the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Matching report with 5K less jobs added than the forecast, a large downward revision to the previous report along with a match in the U-3 rate. We saw a slow developing long spike that climbed 22 ticks in 19 sec. Due to the gradual approach and inability to breach the inner tier, cancel the order. It climbed another 27 ticks in the next 20 sec to cross the R2 Pivot before reversing 26 ticks in 1 min as it crossed the R2 Mid pivot. Then it climbed for a final peak of 24 more ticks in 12 min before reversing 22 ticks in 6 min. As this was a “goldilocks” report for the market, it caused a longer term sustained rally into the session close.

ZC 12-14 (1 Min) 9.11.2014

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Sep 282014

9/11/2014 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 341.75
1st Peak @ 337.50 – 1200:53 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 340.75 – 1204 (4 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 335.75 – 1223 (23 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 338.00 – 1229 (29 min)
9 ticks

Continued Reversal to 341.75 – 1415 (135 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a short move of 17 ticks that initially struggled with the LOD then tamely fell to cross the S3 Pivot toward the end of the :01 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 340.50 with no slippage, then seen it keep trickling lower. Look to exit when it hovered at the S3 Pivot for about 20 sec at the end of the :01 bar and beginning of the :02 bar. After the peak it reversed 13 ticks to the old LOD location and 13 SMA, then it fell for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks after 20 min to reach the S4 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 9 ticks in 6 min to the S3 Pivot and another 15 ticks back to the origin in the next 100 min as the session closed.

ZS 07-15 (1 Min) 5.12.2015

WASDE - Beans Comments Off

May 162015

5/12/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 970.00 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 973.00 – 1200:49 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 964.25 – 1205 (5 min)
35 ticks

Pullback to 967.25 – 1207 (7 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 956.25 – 1332 (92 min)
44 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case the initial reaction would have been choppy but likely safe to trade, but the alternative worked too. As usual, it would have been fairly tame as it hovered around the old LOD and S1 Pivot to provide an anchor point at 970.00 at 32 sec. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 971.50 with no slippage, then you would have seen it continue to climb to reach the S1 Mid Pivot / OOD position. It hovered for 5 sec, then backed off and made a another attempt to break through the S1 Mid Pivot, but could not, so exit there with about 5 ticks. After that it reversed 35 ticks in 4 min after crossing the S2 Pivot. Then it pulled back 12 ticks in 7 min before reversing 44 ticks in 85 min. It used the 20 SMA as resistance and stepped lower into the session close.

ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 5.13.2015

Retail Sales Comments Off

May 162015

5/13/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.4%
Core Actual: 0.1%
Previous revision: +0.3% to 0.7%
Regular Forecast: 0.3%
Regular Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 1.1%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 154’07
1st Peak @ 154’28 – 0832:01 (3 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 154’24 – 0832:20 (3 min)
4 ticks

2nd Peak @ 155’02 – 0837 (7 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 153’31 – 0917 (47 min)
35 ticks

Notes: Report was weak, falling short of the forecasts by 0.3% and 0.3% margins with moderate upward previous revisions. Import Prices also released at the same time and was disappointing. This caused a long spike for 13 ticks immediately and another 8 ticks following that started on the 200 SMA and rose to cross the 100/50 SMAs, the R1 Pivot, and the HOD. It would have kept slowly stepping up without reversing until it peaked for 21 total ticks at 154’28 at the start of the :33 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 154’11 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it continue to climb. This would have allowed an exit with up to 15 ticks if you were patient. After a 4 tick reversal in several seconds, it continued to climb for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks in 4 min. Then it reversed 35 ticks in 40 min to the R1 Mid Pivot.

ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 5.13.2015

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

May 172015

5/13/2015 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 1.93/2.6
Actual: 2.24/2.7
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 153’02 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 152’30 – 1301:36 (1 min)
)))-4 ticks

)))Reversal to 153’14 – 1301:46 (1 min)
)))16 ticks

)))Pullback to 153’08 – 1302:06 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks
————
Reversal to 153’21 – 1307 (6 min)
13 ticks

Pullback to 152’29 – 1323 (22 min)
24 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 152’30 or 152’29 (on/below the 50 SMA) / 152’27 (just above the 20 SMA)
Short entries – 153’07 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 153’11 (just below the 200 SMA)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1:30 – 1:40 late. The highest yield rose considerably from last month’s auction while the bid to cover ratio rose slightly. This caused the ZB to pop short 4 ticks then reverse 16 ticks in 10 sec to the 200 SMA. This would have resulted in 2 possible scenarios. If you placed your inner long entry at 152’30, you may have filled long then had the inner short entry cover the trade for 9 ticks, then the outer short entry fill. The more likely case would have been the inner and outer short entries fill with an average short position at 153’09. As it reversed it hovered at 153’10 to allow an exit with 1 tick loss (2 total ticks with both positions). Then it reversed in a choppy manner to climb 13 ticks to the OOD in 5 min before pulling back 24 ticks in 16 min after crossing the 100/50 SMAs. It continued to swing for another hour then eventually settled lower.

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