US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 8.18.2015

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

Sep 122015

8/18/2015 Monthly Building Permits / Housing Starts (0830 EDT)
Building Permits
Forecast: 1.23M
Actual: 1.12M
Previous revision: n/a
Housing Starts
Forecast: 1.19M
Actual: 1.21M
Previous revision: +0.03 to 1.20M
DULL FILL
Started @ 0.008052
1st Peak @ 0.008047 – 0830:38 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 0.008050 – 0833 (3 min)
3 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008036 – 0902 (32 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.008043 – 0917 (47 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report was mixed with the BLDG Permit falling short of the forecast by 0.11M and the Housing starts slightly exceeding the forecast by 0.02M with a moderate upward revision. This caused a short move of 5 ticks that started just above the SMAs and fell to cross the R1 Pivot and 200 SMA. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 0.008049 with no slippage. Then it trickled lower for 2 more ticks to allow an exit with 1-2 ticks of profit. After a small reversal of 3 ticks in 2 min, it fell for a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks in 29 min to the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 7 ticks in 15 min to the PP Pivot / 50 SMA.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 8.19.2015

CPI Comments Off

Sep 122015

Caption for 8/19:
8/19/2015 Core CPI (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.1%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.008047
1st Peak @ 0.008085 – 0830:01 (1 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 0.008053 – 0830:02 (1 min)
32 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.008038 – 0838 (8 min)
47 ticks

Notes: The core reading fell short of the forecast and the broader reading also missed the forecast. This caused a bizarre large unsustainable spike of 38 ticks to the R4 Mid Pivot that immediately collapsed. 26 tick large short spike that started on the 200 SMA and fell to immediately cross the OOD, then trickle lower another 13 ticks in 30 sec. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 0.008267 with 3 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen it fall and hover initially at 0.008249 to allow 18 ticks to be captured. After a minimal reversal, and with no support barrier near, it continued to fall for a final peak of 19 more ticks in 9 min. Then it reversed 8 ticks in 4 min and traded sideways.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 8.25.2015

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Sep 122015

8/25/2015 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 92.8
Actual: 101.5
Previous revision: +0.1 to 91.0
SPIKE / REVERSE – TRIPWIRE TO CANCEL
Started @ 0.008355
1st Peak @ 0.008366 – 1000:38 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008355 – 1000:58 (1 min)
11 ticks

Pullback to 0.008364 – 1002 (2 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008343 – 1017 (17 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast with a 8.7 point delta with a negligible upward revision to the previous reading. We saw a premature whipsaw short 43 sec before the release to be a tripwire to cancel the order. Then The reaction caused a long move of 11 ticks that started just below the 50 SMA and rose to cross the 13 /20 SMAs in 38 sec then reversed later in the bar back to the origin. Then it pulled back 9 ticks in 1 min before reversing 21 ticks in 15 min to the 200 SMA.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 8.26.2015

Durable Goods Comments Off

Sep 122015

8/26/2015 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.3%
Core Actual: 0.6%
Previous revision: -0.2% to 0.6%
Regular Forecast: -0.4%
Regular Actual: 2.0%
Previous Revision: +0.7% to 4.1%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008356
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008345 – 0830:02 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008354 – 0830:04 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.008341 – 0830:37 (1 min)
)))13 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.008357 – 0850 (20 min)
16 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008346 (just below the LOD) / 0.008332 (just above the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008366 (just above the 100 SMA / R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008378 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: The core reading mildly exceeded the forecast with a modest bearish revision while the regular reading exceeded the forecast with a moderate bullish revision. With most of the news bullish, this caused a short move of 11 ticks in 2 sec that quickly retreated. This would have filled your inner long tier at 0.008346 then allowed about 4-6 ticks to be captured after a quick reversal and brief hovering. If you did not act quickly in this case, you would have seen the profit ebb away after 30 sec then allow an exit near breakeven in the next 4 min. After that it reversed 16 ticks in the next 19 min to the 50 SMA / PP Pivot.

ES 09-15 (1 Min) 8.7.2015

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Sep 132015

8/7/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 222K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 215K
Previous Revision: +8K to 231K
Rate Forecast: 5.3%
Rate Actual: 5.3%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 2075.75 (on the 50 SMA)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 2078.00 – 0830:05 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Reversal to 2073.50 – 0830:24 (1 min)
)))-18 ticks

)))Pullback to 2076.00 – 0831:02 (2 min)
)))10 ticks

)))Reversal to 2072.00 – 0832:03 (3 min)
)))-16 ticks

)))Pullback to 2075.50 – 0832:48 (3 min)
)))14 ticks
————
Reversal to 2071.25 – 0838 (8 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2082.75 – 0901 (31 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 2071.00 – 0936 (66 min)
47 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 2070.75 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 2066.50 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 2080.50 (just above the OOD) / 2085.75 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Mildly weak report with 7K less jobs added than the forecast, a modest upward revision to the previous report along with no change in the U-3 rate. This caused a small long spike of 9 ticks in 5 sec that crossed the 200 SMA before reversing 18 ticks in 20 sec to the LOD. This was too small be more than half to reach the inner short tier, so cancel the order with no fill. It continued to swing up and down several times with the cycle period growing until in reversed in the 8th min to extend the LOD, then climbed for a 2nd peak of 19 more ticks to the PP Pivot in 23 min. Then it reversed 47 ticks in 35 min to the LOD again.

ES 09-15 (1 Min) 9.4.2015

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Sep 132015

9/4/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 215K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 173K
Previous Revision: +30K to 231K
Rate Forecast: 5.2%
Rate Actual: 5.1%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 1930.75 – shift down 6 ticks to 1929.25 (on the 50 SMA)
————
Trap Trade:
)))Whipsaw between 1926.50 and 1932.00 – 0830:12 (1 min)
22 tick span (+11 / -11 ticks)

)))1st Peak @ 1923.75 – 0830:28 (1 min)
)))-22 ticks

)))Reversal to 1936.00 – 0832:51 (3 min)
)))49 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1921.00 – 0839 (9 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 1928.50 – 0846 (16 min)
30 ticks

Final Peak @ 1910.50 – 0854 (24 min)
75 ticks

Reversal to 1930.25 – 0944 (74 min)
79 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1924.25 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 1919.25 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 1934.50 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 1939.50 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Mixed report with 42K less jobs added than the forecast, a healthy upward revision to the previous report along with a 0.1% improvement in the U-3 rate attributed to more people departing the labor force. This caused an immediate whipsaw spanning 22 ticks. Then it fell for the 1st peak of 22 ticks in 28 sec before reversing. This would have filled the shifted inner long entry perfectly then reversed to allow up to 45+ ticks to be captured in about 2.5 min. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks in 6 min as it eclipsed the S2 Pivot / LOD before reversing 30 ticks in 7 min to the 3 Major SMAs and S2 Mid Pivot. After that it fell for a final peak of 42 more ticks in 8 min before reversing 79 ticks in 50 min.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 8.12.2015

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Sep 132015

8/12/2015 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.23/2.7
Actual: 2.12/2.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 159’04 (1301)
1st Peak @ 158’28 – 1301:53 (1 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 158’23 – 1306 (5 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 159’03 – 1313 (12 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell a healthy amount while the bid to cover ratio tapered. This caused the ZB to spike short 8 ticks as it started just above the R1 Mid Pivot and initiated the drop at 1301:34 and peaked 19 sec later. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 159’01 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it fall and hover around 158’29 to allow a quick exit with 4 ticks. Then it continued to fall without a reversal for another 5 ticks in 4 min to the OOD and PP Pivot. After that it reversed 12 ticks in 7 min to the R1 Mid Pivot.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 8.13.2015

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

Sep 142015

8/13/2015 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.08/2.2
Actual: 2.88/2.3
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 157’31 (1301:30)
1st Peak @ 157’15 – 1301:45 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 157’31 – 1314 (13 min)
16 ticks

Pullback to 157’22 – 1320 (19 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 158’10 – 1353 (52 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1:30 late. The highest yield fell substantially from last month as the bid to cover ticked up. This caused the bonds to spike short for 16 ticks at 1301:38 as it started on the S2 Mid Pivot and fell to cross the S2 Pivot and extend the LOD in 7 sec. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket you would have filled short at 157’26 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it continue to drop to hover around 157’16 to allow about up to 10 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed 16 ticks in 12 min back to the origin before pulling back 9 ticks in 6 min to the S2 Pivot. Then it reversed 20 ticks in 33 min as it crossed the S1 Pivot / OOD.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 8.13.2015

Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Sep 142015

8/13/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.4%
Core Actual: 0.4%
Previous revision: +0.5% to 0.4%
Regular Forecast: 0.6%
Regular Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to 0.0%
SPIKE/ REVERSE…DULL EXIT
Started @ 158’06
1st Peak @ 158’15 – 0830:03 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 158’00 – 0830:30 (1 min)
15 ticks

Pullback to 158’06 – 0831:37 (2 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 157’24 – 0836 (6 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report was released concurrently with Import Prices. All the news was matching or nearly matching leaving the previous bullish revisions the only driver on the news to cause choppy moves. This caused a 9 tick long spike that started on the OOD / S1 Pivot and climbed then quickly fell back to the fill point. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 158’09 with no slippage. This is where a profit target would have been prudent as a setting of 5 or less would have filled. Otherwise, recognize the quick reversal and matching conditions and manually exit near breakeven up for 8 sec after the report. Then it slowly trickled lower for a reversal of 15 ticks in 30 sec to the 200 SMA. After that it pulled back 6 ticks in 1 min to the OOD / S1 Pivot before reversing 14 ticks in 4 min to the S2 Pivot. Then it continued to chop with 8-10 tick swings every 5 min or so for the next hour.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 8.19.2015

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Sep 142015

8/19/2015 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EDT)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 158’15
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 158’10 – 1400:39 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Reversal to 158’16 – 1402:43 (3 min)
)))6 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 157’30 – 1422 (22 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 159’06 – 1523 (83 min)
8 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 158’10 (just below the R1 Pivot) / 158’06 (on the R1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 158’20 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot) / 158’24 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The minutes revealed that the FED was continuing to evaluate when to execute the rate hike with September being the most likely course of action. This caused a near miss for the Trap Trade. You would have seen a 5 tick spike short in 39 sec that crossed the 200 SMA and R1 Pivot. This would have touched the inner long entry but not filled (unless you manually moved it up 1 tick. If you were able to get a manual entry, you would have been able to capture up to 4 ticks on the reversal as it climbed 6 ticks in 2 min to the 50 SMA. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 12 more ticks in 19 min as it crossed the PP Pivot before reversing 40 ticks in 1 hour as it crossed the R2 Pivot and extended the HOD.

Older Entries Newer Entries