US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 1.27.2016

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Feb 082016

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 1_27_2016

1/27/2016 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 159’08
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 159’03 – 1400:57 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Reversal to 159’16 – 1402:42 (3 min)
)))13 ticks
————
Pullback to 159’09 – 1404 (4 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 159’31 – 1411 (11 min)
22 ticks

Pullback to 159’20 – 1423 (23 min)
11 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 159’00 (just above the LOD) / 158’24 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 157’26 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 158’04 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Well, first dull move to not breach the inner tier since last January. It was advisable to cancel the trade on the slow movement and inability to breakout. It fell only 5 ticks in about a minute to eclipse the S2 Pivot, then rallied after that for 10 min to the PP Pivot. Then it fell to the S1 Pivot and 20 SMA.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 1.28.2016

7y Bond Auction Comments Off

Feb 082016

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 1_28_2016

1/28/2015 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.16/2.3
Actual: 1.76/2.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 159’19 (1301)
1st Peak @ 160’00 – 1303:01 (2 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 159’26 – 1304 (3 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 160’09 – 1325 (24 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 160’00 – 1333 (32 min)
9 ticks

Expected Fill: 159’23 (long)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 159’31 – 8 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 159’28 (on the OOD and 100 SMA / just above the 200 SMA)

Notes: Large quick spike saw some slippage but allowed a good amount of profit as it did not want to reverse. After the 1st peak, it found support with the 100/200 SMAs and climbed for another 9 ticks in 21 min.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 1.29.2016

Advance GDP Comments Off

Feb 082016

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 1_29_2016

1/29/2016 Quarterly Advance GDP (0830 EST)
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: 0.7%
Previous Revision: +0.5% to 2.0%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 161’16 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 161’09 – 0830:30 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Reversal to 161’15 – 0832:09 (3 min)
)))6 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 160’30 – 0909 (39 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 161’15 – 0928 (58 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 161’04 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 161’26 (just above the HOD)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Slow and small move for only 7 ticks fell short of the inner long entry, so cancel the order. It reversed 6 ticks, then fell for a nice 2nd peak of 11 more ticks. Then it reversed 17 ticks to the R2 Pivot.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 2.11.2014

FED Testimony Comments Off

Feb 282014

2/11/2014 FED Chairman Yellen Testimony (0830 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 133’07
1st Peak @ 132’25 – 0832 (2 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 133’05 – 0850 (20 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 132’22 – 0947 (77 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 132’30 – 1053 (143 min)
8 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Yellen testified on the semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee. The headline was that the FED was going to stay the course and continue on the pace of tapering QE3 to the tune of $10B per meeting. This was not a certainty after several weak reports had been released the week prior (ISM and NFP to name a few). This caused the bonds to weaken and spike short for 14 ticks on 2 bars, crossing all 3 major SMAs and nearly reaching the S2 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 133’03 with 1 tick of slippage on the :31 bar. Then it fell for another 10 ticks slowly as it briefly stalled on the S1 Pivot, but deliberately without much of a pullback. You could have captured about 9 ticks with ease. After the peak, it reversed for 12 ticks in the next 20 min, hitting the S1 Mid Pivot and all 3 major SMAs. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks, eclipsing the S2 Pivot about an hour later. The final reversal reclaimed 8 ticks as it reached the S2 Mid Pivot and 200 SMA.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 2.7.2014

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Feb 272014

2/7/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 185K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 113K
Previous Revision: +1K to 75K
Rate Forecast: 6.7%
Rate Actual: 6.6%
INDECISIVE…SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 132’31
Premature spike @ 132’12 – 0830:59 (0 min)
19 ticks

1st Peak @ 134’02 – 0832 (2 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 132’29 – 0930 (60 min)
37 ticks

Notes: Disappointing report showing 72K less jobs created than expected, a negligible previous upward revision of 1K jobs, and a 0.1% improvement in the unemployment U-3 rate as retailers and government agencies cut payrolls, while construction and manufacturing grew. This caused a premature short move of 19 ticks at 59 sec that promptly reversed after the about 2 sec. It fell to cross the S2 Pivot, then reversed to cross all 3 major SMAs and the R2 Pivot for 54 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 132’19 with abnormally high 8 ticks of slippage, then been stopped at about 132’26 with variable slippage added to the 5 tick loss between 0 and 5 ticks depending upon broker, feed, and VPS. After the peak, it reversed steadily for 37 ticks in the next hour, crossing all 3 major SMAs and reaching the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it bounced off of the low and trended slightly higher, but unable to break through the 133’19 area.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 2.5.2014

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Feb 232014

2/5/2014 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 53.6
Actual: 54.0
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009874
1st Peak @ 0.009851 – 1001 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 0.009858 – 1002 (2 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009841 – 1005 (5 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 0.009888 – 1027 (27 min)
47 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.009896 – 1106 (66 min)
55 ticks

Notes: Mildly positive report exceeded the forecast by 0.4 points. This caused a short spike of 23 ticks on the :01 bar as it started just above the 50 SMA, then fell to hit the PP Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.009871 with no slippage, then seen it fall and ratchet lower to eventually hit the PP Pivot. If you were patient, you could have captured up to 19 ticks. I managed 13 ticks with a profit target just below the R1 Mid Pivot. After the 1st peak, it reversed for 7 ticks back to the R1 Mid Pivot before falling for a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks on the :05 bar near the OOD and S1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 47 ticks in the next 22 min back to the 200 SMA. It backed off more than 20 ticks, before it continued to climb for another high, 8 ticks higher after 1100.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 2.4.2014

Factory Orders Comments Off

Feb 242014

2/4/2014 Monthly Factory Orders (1000 EST)
Forecast: -1.9%
Actual: -1.5%
Previous Revision: -0.3% to 1.5%
DULL REACTION (FILL)
Started @ 0.009862
1st Bar span 0.009859 – 0.009864 – 1001 (1 min)
+/- 3 ticks

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast with a weak reading offset by a sizeable downward revision to the previous report. This caused a dull reaction that spanned only +/- 3 ticks from the origin as it was trapped by the 100/50 SMAs on top and the S1 Mid Pivot underneath. With JOBB, you may have filled short at 0.009859 with no slippage. If filled, look to exit with a 1-2 tick loss as it tamely hovered.

CL 03-14 (1 Min) 2.5.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Feb 252014

2/5/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 2.30M
Actual: 0.44M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.48M
Actual: 0.51M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.58M
Actual: -2.36M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 97.90
1st Peak @ 97.66 – 1031 (1 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 97.87 – 1032 (2 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 97.18 – 1046 (16 min)
72 ticks

Reversal to 97.52 – 1058 (28 min)
34 ticks

Final Peak @ 96.80 – 1124 (54 min)
110 ticks

Reversal to 97.54 – 1207 (97 min)
74 ticks

Notes: Modest draw in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest draw when a small gain was expected and distillates saw a moderate draw when a smaller draw was expected. While the results were all in line as more than expected loss of inventory, it did not create the expected bullish reaction. The overall reaction was bearish, delivering a small 24 tick short spike on the :31 bar after some early noise that crossed the 200 SMA and hit the OOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 97.78 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it chop to reach a low of 96.66 toward the end of the bar. A profit target placed just below the 200 SMA would have yielded about 10 ticks. After the peak, we saw it reverse, then fall to step lower to a final peak of 110 ticks to reach the S1 Pivot nearly an hour after the report. Then it reclaimed 74 ticks back to the R1 Mid Pivot and 200 SMA 43 min later.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 2.6.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Feb 252014

2/6/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 337K
Actual: 331K
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009861 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009852 – 0830:18 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009864 – 0832:59 (3 min)
)))12 ticks
————
Extended Reversal to 0.009879 – 0858 (28 min)
27 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009853 (below the OOD and 200 SMA and also at the support level established on the 0753 bar) / 0.009842 (above the LOD)
Short entries – 0.009871 (on the HOD ) / 0.009880 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Report came in mildly better than the forecast by 6K jobs but was offset by a worse than expected Trade Balance report causing an initial short move of 9 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs, the S1 Mid Pivot and OOD, then hit the low from about 45 min earlier. A prudently placed inner long tier at 0.009853 would have filled. Then it would have rebounded long to give you about 8 ticks after it stalled. After that it chopped sideways for about 15 min before extending the rally long to hit the PP Pivot for another 15 ticks.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 2.5.2014

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Feb 222014

2/5/2014 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 191K
Actual: 175K
Previous revision: -11K to 227K
INDECISIVE
Started @ 134’11
1st Peak @ 134’15 – 0816 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 134’05 – 0816 (1 min)
-10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 134’16 – 0823 (8 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 133’23 – 0935 (80 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Report mildly fell short of the forecast by 16K jobs along with a moderate 11K downward revision to the previous report. This caused an indecisive reaction that shot long 4 ticks hitting the R1 Pivot, then reversed 10 ticks quickly crossing all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 134’14 with no slippage, then seen it hit your stop loss for a 5 tick loss with no slippage. While the FF Forecast was at 191K, other websites listed lower around 180K, so this may have been closer to a match. After the :01 bar, it stuck to the 100/200 SMAs and the PP Pivot for 4 min before eventually rebounding long to gain a minor 2nd peak of 1 more tick. Then it dramatically reversed for 25 ticks in the next 72 min, all the way down to the S2 Pivot.

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