US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 6.12.2013

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Jul 042013

6/12/2013 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 1.81/2.7
Actual: 2.21/2.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 139’10 (1301)
1st Peak @ 139’05 – 1302 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 139’16 – 1303 (2 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 138’30 – 1319 (18 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 139’11 – 1341 (40 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1+ min late. The highest yield rose significantly from the previous auction. This caused the ZB to spike short for a muted 5 ticks as it was stuck on the 200 SMA, then retreat fairly quickly. With JOBB you would fill short at 139’07 with no slippage. I decided to leave the stop loss unchanged at 139’12 with the 200 SMA sitting at 139’10 and acting as resistance, then I was stopped about 30 sec after I was filled as it reversed up to the 100 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot for 11 ticks. Then it left that wick naked and fell again to chop lower for an eventual 2nd peak of 12 ticks after about 18 min, crossing the PP Pivot briefly. Then it popped back up for a final reversal of 11 ticks in about 22 min to reach the intersection of the 100 and 200 SMAs.

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 6.6.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jun 112013

6/6/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 345K
Actual: 346K
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.010093
1st Peak @ 0.010112 – 0831 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.010081 – 0831 (1 min)
31 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.010062 – 0854 (24 min)
50 ticks

Notes: Report came in matching the forecast causing an indecisive reaction. It started on the R1 Mid Pivot and 200 SMA, then shot long for 19 ticks and reversed for 31 ticks in millisec to stop you out and trigger the knife switch with slippage. The long move nearly reached the R1 Pivot and the short move eclipsed the OOD. With JOBB, you would have filled long at .010108 with 10 ticks of slippage, then stopped out at 0.010088 with 10 ticks of slippage immediately. After the :31 bar, it continued lower for an extended reversal of 50 ticks in 24 min. Then it popped back up and chopped sideways.

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 6.5.2013

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Jun 102013

6/5/2013 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 171K
Actual: 135K
Previous revision: -6K to 113K
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.010042
1st Peak @ 0.010090 – 0816 (1 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 0.010048 – 0824 (9 min)
42 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.010028 – 0857 (42 min)
62 ticks

Notes: Report was moderately negative showing 36k less jobs created than expected along with a negligible downward revision of 6k jobs causing a large 48 tick long spike on the :16 bar that crossed the 50/100 SMAs near the origin and the R3 Pivot as it extended the HOD. Due to the size of the spike, it left 17 ticks on the wick naked and caused higher than normal slippage. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 0.010056 with 10 ticks of slippage, then look to exit in between 0.010070 and 0.010080 with about 20 ticks as it hovered for about 10 sec. After the 1st peak left a naked wick, it reversed for 42 ticks in 8 min, then it made a failed attempt at a 2nd peak, only able to reach the R3 Pivot. After that it fell for a larger extended reversal of 62 ticks in the next 30 min, eclipsing the R2 Pivot. Then it chopped sideways.

CL 07-13 (1 Min) 6.4.2013

Trade Balance Comments Off

Jun 102013

6/4/2013 Monthly Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: -41.1B
Actual: -40.3B
Previous Revision: +1.7B to -37.1B
DULL REACTION
Started @ 93.28
1st Bar range 93.25 to 93.31 – 0831 (1 min)
+/- 3 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded the forecast by 0.8B to cause a dull reaction. When the market fails to launch in about 10-15 sec, cancel the bracket. In this case you could have ridden out the entire :31 bar and most of the :32 bar without a fill. The 6J had a better reaction to this report, but not over the long term trend so we will continue to evaluate it.

CL 07-13 (1 Min) 6.4.2013

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jun 102013

6/3/2013 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 50.6
Actual: 49.0
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 92.72
1st Peak @ 92.49 – 1001 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 92.82 – 1002 (2 min)
33 ticks

Extended Reversal to 93.38 – 1021 (21 min)
89 ticks

Notes: Report came in very disappointing as it was 1.6 points short, well below 50.0 and the worst reading in 4 years. The CL initially fell, but as is often the case with very bearish news, the dollar also dropped and caused the CL to eventually rally due to the inverse relationship. We saw a drop of only 23 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs and the R1 Mid Pivot, then after 40 sec, it reversed for 33 ticks on the next bar, then continued to trend upward. With JOBB, you would have filled short with 1 tick of slippage at 92.66. You would have seen it hover between 92.49 and 92.53 for 10 sec in the middle of the :01 bar, so exit there with at least 15 ticks. After the initial reversal, it stepped higher as the dollar continued to fall towards an extended reversal of 89 ticks 20 min later, crossing the R2 Mid Pivot and extending the HOD. Then it backed off and traded sideways.

NG 07-13 (1 Min) 6.6.2013

NG Storage Comments Off

Jun 082013

6/6/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 101B
Actual: 111B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.926 (1029)
Premature Spike @ 3.908 – 1030 (1 min)
18 ticks

1st Peak @ 3.844 – 1032 (3 min)
82 ticks

Reversal to 3.883 – 1044 (14 min)
39 ticks

Notes: Moderately larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a small premature short spike 30 sec before the report that extended the LOD, then a consistent news based spike that fell 82 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.914 with about 2 ticks of slippage on the premature spike. Due to the timing (too early for news based) but small size, you could close out with a handful ot ticks or wait for the potential real spike. If you waited, you would have been able to capture 60+ ticks with ease. The peak was more sustainable than normal as it hit the S4 Pivot and stuck for about 7 min before the divergence built up to cause it to rebound for 39 ticks and eclipse the 20 SMA. After that it traded sideways between the S4 Mid Pivot and S4 Pivot.

NG 07-13 (1 Min) 5.30.2013

NG Storage Comments Off

Jun 082013

5/30/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 85B
Actual: 88B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.124 (1029)
Premature Spike @ 4.174 – 1030 (1 min)
50 ticks

1st Peak @ 4.075 – 1031 (2 min)
99 ticks

Reversal to 4.128 – 1032 (3 min)
53 ticks

2nd Peak @ 4.041 – 1218 (108 min)
133 ticks

Reversal to 4.064 – 1236 (126 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Slightly larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a large premature long spike 3 sec before the report that nearly reached the PP Pivot, then after the news, the 1st peak drove it lower by nearly 100 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 4.144 with about 10 ticks of slippage on premature spike. Due to the timing (too early for news based) and size, close out with profit of about 20 ticks. The short move due to the news initiated on time and left 34 ticks on the tail naked. This continued into a quick reversal of 53 ticks back to the 13 SMA. Then it labored for a slow developing 2nd peak of 34 more ticks in the next 105 min. After that it reversed for 23 ticks in 18 min.

CL 07-13 (1 Min) 5.28.2013

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Jun 082013

5/28/2013 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 70.7
Actual: 76.2
Previous revision: +0.9 to 69.0
INDECISIVE
Started @ 95.55
1st Peak @ 95.63 – 1001 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 95.37 – 1001 (1 min)
-26 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast by a decent margin and saw the highest reading since 2008, but caused a strange reaction across the entire market. Normally this would have caused a long sustainable move, but it popped up for 8 ticks to hit the 50 SMA, then quickly reversed for 26 ticks to eclipse the 100 SMA. The market conditions were already bizarre with equity markets rallying substantially for market highs in the 20 min prior to the report and the first day after a 3 day weekend. With JOBB you would have filled long at 95.60 with about 1 tick of slippage, then been stopped with a 10 tick loss. Normally this report is a tame mover and yields a moderate amount of ticks, so the underlying market conditions are to blame here.

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 5.24.2013

Durable Goods Comments Off

Jun 082013

5/24/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual: 1.3%
Previous revision: -0.1% to -1.5%
Regular Forecast: 1.6%
Regular Actual: 3.3%
Previous Revision: -1.2% to -6.9%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.009858
1st Peak @ 0.009837 – 0831 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reverse to 0.009865 – 0840 (10 min)
28 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.009915 – 1001 (91 min)
78 ticks

Notes: Report came in predominately bullish and impressed the market overall. This caused a 21 tick short move that bottomed on the :31 bar, crossing the R1 Mid Pivot and the 200 SMA, leaving 5 ticks on the tail naked. Then it quickly reversed for 28 ticks in 10 min, back to the 100 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.009853 with 1 tick of slippage just below the 200 SMA. Look to exit just below the R1 Mid Pivot for about 10 -12 ticks. This is also a good report to use a profit trigger of about 10 ticks. After the initial quick reversal, it fell to test the 200 SMA one more time, then it rallied for the next 75 min for an extended reversal of 75 ticks.

CL 07-13 (1 Min) 5.30.2013

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jun 022013

5/30/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EDT)
Forecast: -0.8M
Actual: 3.0M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 92.29
1st Peak @ 92.89 – 1103 (3 min)
60 ticks

Reversal to 92.43 – 1110 (10 min)
46 ticks

Final Peak @ 93.99 – 1146 (46 min)
170 ticks

Reversal to 93.56 – 1159 (59 min)
43 ticks

Notes: Medium gain on the crude inventories when a small draw was expected, while gasoline saw a small draw. Commercial oil inventories achieved another new record at nearly 400 million barrels. The long reaction defies logic as the aggregate news should have caused a short move, but that occasionally happens. We saw a long spike of 60 ticks in 3 min that eclipsed all 3 major SMAs near the origin and peaked at the OOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have seen the market oscillate between 9 ticks below your anchor point up to 5 ticks above for about 30 sec. This should have been cause to cancel the order without a fill. If you left the bracket on the chart, the long order would have filled with no slippage at 92.39, then you would have seen the slow, but steady rise on the remainder of the :31 bar until the beginning of the :33 bar, leaving up to 45 ticks to be captured. After the 1st peak, it reversed back to the 20 SMA 7 min later, then continued to rise for a 2nd peak of 90 more ticks in about 35 min. After that it reversed for 43 ticks before the top of the hour then traded sideways.

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