Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 2.7.2014

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Feb 272014

2/7/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 185K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 113K
Previous Revision: +1K to 75K
Rate Forecast: 6.7%
Rate Actual: 6.6%
INDECISIVE…SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 132’31
Premature spike @ 132’12 – 0830:59 (0 min)
19 ticks

1st Peak @ 134’02 – 0832 (2 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 132’29 – 0930 (60 min)
37 ticks

Notes: Disappointing report showing 72K less jobs created than expected, a negligible previous upward revision of 1K jobs, and a 0.1% improvement in the unemployment U-3 rate as retailers and government agencies cut payrolls, while construction and manufacturing grew. This caused a premature short move of 19 ticks at 59 sec that promptly reversed after the about 2 sec. It fell to cross the S2 Pivot, then reversed to cross all 3 major SMAs and the R2 Pivot for 54 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 132’19 with abnormally high 8 ticks of slippage, then been stopped at about 132’26 with variable slippage added to the 5 tick loss between 0 and 5 ticks depending upon broker, feed, and VPS. After the peak, it reversed steadily for 37 ticks in the next hour, crossing all 3 major SMAs and reaching the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it bounced off of the low and trended slightly higher, but unable to break through the 133’19 area.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 2.5.2014

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Feb 232014

2/5/2014 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 53.6
Actual: 54.0
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009874
1st Peak @ 0.009851 – 1001 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 0.009858 – 1002 (2 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009841 – 1005 (5 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 0.009888 – 1027 (27 min)
47 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.009896 – 1106 (66 min)
55 ticks

Notes: Mildly positive report exceeded the forecast by 0.4 points. This caused a short spike of 23 ticks on the :01 bar as it started just above the 50 SMA, then fell to hit the PP Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.009871 with no slippage, then seen it fall and ratchet lower to eventually hit the PP Pivot. If you were patient, you could have captured up to 19 ticks. I managed 13 ticks with a profit target just below the R1 Mid Pivot. After the 1st peak, it reversed for 7 ticks back to the R1 Mid Pivot before falling for a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks on the :05 bar near the OOD and S1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 47 ticks in the next 22 min back to the 200 SMA. It backed off more than 20 ticks, before it continued to climb for another high, 8 ticks higher after 1100.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 2.4.2014

Factory Orders Comments Off

Feb 242014

2/4/2014 Monthly Factory Orders (1000 EST)
Forecast: -1.9%
Actual: -1.5%
Previous Revision: -0.3% to 1.5%
DULL REACTION (FILL)
Started @ 0.009862
1st Bar span 0.009859 – 0.009864 – 1001 (1 min)
+/- 3 ticks

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast with a weak reading offset by a sizeable downward revision to the previous report. This caused a dull reaction that spanned only +/- 3 ticks from the origin as it was trapped by the 100/50 SMAs on top and the S1 Mid Pivot underneath. With JOBB, you may have filled short at 0.009859 with no slippage. If filled, look to exit with a 1-2 tick loss as it tamely hovered.

CL 03-14 (1 Min) 2.5.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Feb 252014

2/5/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 2.30M
Actual: 0.44M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.48M
Actual: 0.51M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.58M
Actual: -2.36M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 97.90
1st Peak @ 97.66 – 1031 (1 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 97.87 – 1032 (2 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 97.18 – 1046 (16 min)
72 ticks

Reversal to 97.52 – 1058 (28 min)
34 ticks

Final Peak @ 96.80 – 1124 (54 min)
110 ticks

Reversal to 97.54 – 1207 (97 min)
74 ticks

Notes: Modest draw in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest draw when a small gain was expected and distillates saw a moderate draw when a smaller draw was expected. While the results were all in line as more than expected loss of inventory, it did not create the expected bullish reaction. The overall reaction was bearish, delivering a small 24 tick short spike on the :31 bar after some early noise that crossed the 200 SMA and hit the OOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 97.78 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it chop to reach a low of 96.66 toward the end of the bar. A profit target placed just below the 200 SMA would have yielded about 10 ticks. After the peak, we saw it reverse, then fall to step lower to a final peak of 110 ticks to reach the S1 Pivot nearly an hour after the report. Then it reclaimed 74 ticks back to the R1 Mid Pivot and 200 SMA 43 min later.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 2.6.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Feb 252014

2/6/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 337K
Actual: 331K
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009861 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009852 – 0830:18 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009864 – 0832:59 (3 min)
)))12 ticks
————
Extended Reversal to 0.009879 – 0858 (28 min)
27 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009853 (below the OOD and 200 SMA and also at the support level established on the 0753 bar) / 0.009842 (above the LOD)
Short entries – 0.009871 (on the HOD ) / 0.009880 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Report came in mildly better than the forecast by 6K jobs but was offset by a worse than expected Trade Balance report causing an initial short move of 9 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs, the S1 Mid Pivot and OOD, then hit the low from about 45 min earlier. A prudently placed inner long tier at 0.009853 would have filled. Then it would have rebounded long to give you about 8 ticks after it stalled. After that it chopped sideways for about 15 min before extending the rally long to hit the PP Pivot for another 15 ticks.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 2.5.2014

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Feb 222014

2/5/2014 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 191K
Actual: 175K
Previous revision: -11K to 227K
INDECISIVE
Started @ 134’11
1st Peak @ 134’15 – 0816 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 134’05 – 0816 (1 min)
-10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 134’16 – 0823 (8 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 133’23 – 0935 (80 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Report mildly fell short of the forecast by 16K jobs along with a moderate 11K downward revision to the previous report. This caused an indecisive reaction that shot long 4 ticks hitting the R1 Pivot, then reversed 10 ticks quickly crossing all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 134’14 with no slippage, then seen it hit your stop loss for a 5 tick loss with no slippage. While the FF Forecast was at 191K, other websites listed lower around 180K, so this may have been closer to a match. After the :01 bar, it stuck to the 100/200 SMAs and the PP Pivot for 4 min before eventually rebounding long to gain a minor 2nd peak of 1 more tick. Then it dramatically reversed for 25 ticks in the next 72 min, all the way down to the S2 Pivot.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 2.3.2014

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Feb 222014

2/3/2014 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 56.2
Actual: 51.3
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 133’22
1st Peak @ 134’06 – 1001 (1 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 134’15 – 1014 (14 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 134’06 – 1048 (48 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report came in very weak, with a result nearly 5 points below the forecast causing a large bullish reaction. We saw a long spike of 16 ticks on the :01 bar that started on the 50 SMA / PP Pivot and crossed the R2 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 133’26 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it hit the R2 Pivot and hover in that area for the rest of the bar. I used a 10 tick target that filled instantly. After a small pullback, it continued to climb for another 9 ticks in the next 13 min, crossing the R3 Mid Pivot. After that it reversed 9 ticks back to the 1st peak area, crossing the 50 SMA and nearly reaching the R2 Pivot in 34 min. Then it rebounded and slowly edged higher in the next few hours.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 1.30.2014

Advance GDP Comments Off

Feb 162014

1/30/2014 Quarterly Advance GDP (0830 EST)
Forecast: 3.3%
Actual: 3.2%
Previous Revision: +1.3% to 4.1%
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 133’08 (last price and 50 SMA position)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 133’13 – 0830:04 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 133’08 – 0830:17 (1 min)
-5 ticks
————
Double top @ 133’13 – 0833 (3 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 133’03 – 0836 (6 min)
10 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 132’30 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 132’23 (just above the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 133’17 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot/ on the OOD) / 133’25 (no SMA/Pivot within 3 ticks)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching with a slightly disappointing reading. This coupled with the greater than expected unemployment claims caused a decisive, but muted long spike of only 5 ticks. It was restricted in its upward trajectory by crossing the 100/200 SMAs. As this was inside of the inner tier short entry by a healthy margin of 4 ticks, cancel the order after 10 sec. As we watched it retreat back to the origin in 17 sec, we noted the trap trade approach is still valid as a model and greater divergence on the reading would have likely worked out in our favor. After the initial bar, it was able to achieve a double top on the :33 bar, then reversed for 10 ticks to eclipse the PP Pivot.

CL 03-14 (1 Min) 1.29.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Feb 172014

1/29/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 2.34M
Actual: 6.42M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.13M
Actual: -0.82M
Distillates
Forecast: -2.23M
Actual: -4.58M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 96.71
1st Peak @ 96.32 – 1031 (1 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 96.70 – 1032 (2 min)
38 ticks

Pullback to 96.45 – 1032 (2 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 97.32 – 1041 (11 min)
87 ticks

Pullback to 96.88 – 1053 (23 min)
44 ticks

Notes: Large gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest draw when a modest gain was expected and distillates saw a healthy draw when a moderate draw was expected. Even though divergent, these numbers indicate an excessive refinery capacity that produced far more products than expected and the draw on distillates was not surprising due to the extreme cold weather. With the results being divergent it was a bit more chaotic than recent reactions, but still safe. The gains on the crude won the influence battle initially with a 39 tick short spike that crossed the S1 Pivot and LOD on the :31 bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 96.59 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it chop to reach a low of 96.32 in the opening seconds. You would have had an opportunity to capture up to 25 ticks up to 18 sec into the :31 bar. If you waited, your stop loss would have been safe until the :34 bar, but opportunities for profit would have been rarer. After the peak, the :32 bar attempted to test the support again, but failed before the product draws took over to rally the CL. It reversed for 87 ticks in about 10 min in a dramatic move. Then it pulled back for 44 ticks to trade near the 200 SMA.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 1.28.2014

Durable Goods Comments Off

Feb 122014

1/28/2014 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.7%
Core Actual: -1.6%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 1.9%
Regular Actual: -4.3%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 3.4%
TRAP TRADE (LOSS – SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009701 (last price and the S2 Mid Pivot)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 0.009716 – 0830:01 (1 min)
15 ticks

Hovered near 0.009717 – 0830:20 (1 min)

2nd Peak @ 0.009728 – 0831:12 (2 min)
27 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 0.009746 – 0841 (11 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 0.009726 – 0901 (31 min)
20 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009689 (on the S2 Pivot) / 0.009683 (just below the LOD)
Short entries – 0.009713 (just above the S1 Pivot ) / 0.009720 (no SMA/Pivot within 10 ticks)

Notes: Report came in solidly bearish overall to be the worst setup for the new official trap trade. This caused a quick pop upward for 15 ticks in 1 sec, crossing the S1 Pivot and 100/50 SMAs. With the Trap Trade, you would have filled short at 0.009713, then seen it hover about 4 ticks above the peak for 20 sec. If you noticed the results and perceived that they were consistent and strongly bearish, the wise play would be to exit with a few ticks loss since the likelihood of a quick reversal is small. After the hovering, it jumped up another 12 ticks for a 2nd peak early on the :32 bar which would have filled the outer tier short order with no intervention, Then the stop for the average position would have been taken for a 12 tick loss. It continued to slowly edge higher without any noticeable reversal as it achieved a final peak of 45 ticks after 10 min, nearly reaching the OOD. Then it reversed for 20 ticks in the next 20 min, crossing the S1 Mid Pivot and nearly reaching the 50 SMA.

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