Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 09 12 (2 Range) 08.03.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Aug 032012

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 08.02.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Aug 022012

8/2/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 375K
Actual: 365K
DULL REACTION
Started @ 89.25
1st Peak @ 89.63 – 0233 (3 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 88.84 – 0238 (8 min)
79 ticks

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast by 10K jobs. Since traders were waiting on the tea leaves from the ECB press conference, this caused a muted :31 bar followed by a large spike on the :32 and :33 bars for 38 ticks due to a drop in the dollar. When the ECB conference disappointed, the dollar rallied strongly causing oil to selloff. This had little to do with the unemployment claims, but occurred at the same time and caused the nosedive from :37 bar to about an hour later. I only gave credit for the reversal to the tail on the :38 bar just above the PP Pivot, since it bounced from there and the claims influence was little if anything after that point.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 08.02.12

Factory Orders Comments Off

Aug 022012

8/2/2012 Monthly Factory Orders (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: -0.5%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to 0.5%
SPIKE / REVERSAL
Started @ 87.69
Peak @ 87.25 – 0405 (5 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 87.67 – 0409 (9 min)
42 ticks

Notes: Very negative report fell short of the forecast coupled with a small downward revision to the previous report. This caused a short spike of 44 ticks in 5 minute that crossed the 50 SMA and bounced off of the S2 Pivot. Since the market had sold off about $2.50 in the last 90 min following the disappointing ECB press conference, the market was fairly oversold. With such a negative report, it was still able to fall. Then the reversal reclaimed 42 ticks in 4 min, before rallying for many more ticks over a longer period of time to correct the longer term oversold status. Very east report to capture about 30 ticks if you are patient and exit after the :04 large red bar.

NG 09 12 (1 Min) 08.02.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Aug 022012

8/2/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 22B
Actual: 28B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 3.089
1st Peak @ 2.956 – 0431 (1 min)
133 ticks

Reversal to 3.020 – 0455 (25 min)
64 ticks

Notes: Greater than expected gain in supply from the forecast caused a large short spike over 2 bars. This was the second largest 1st peak in the last 6 months. The market was in a downtrend before the report, so all of the SMAs were above the market action. The spike only crossed the S2 Pivot, with no other point of support in sight, even cutting through the 3.000 level with ease. The reversal reclaimed 64 ticks in 25 min before it slowly fell to seek out a double bottom.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 08.01.12

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Aug 012012

8/1/2012 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 50.3
Actual: 49.8
Previous revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 88.50
1st Peak @ 88.43 – 0401 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 88.74 – 0406 (6 min)
31 ticks

Notes: Report fell slightly short of the forecast and came in below the threshold of 50 indicating a small contraction for the second month in a row. This caused a 7 tick short spike that should not have filled your JOBB order. After the initial spike did not fill and nothing in the next 10 or so seconds fills, close out and cancel the order. It appears the initial short spike could not go lower than the 20 SMA, indicating little bearish influence from the report. After the :02 -:04 bars chopped up and down, the reversal yielded a healthy 31 ticks to slice through the PP Pivot and peak at 88.73.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 08.01.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Aug 012012

8/1/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.5M
Actual: -6.5M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 88.63
1st Peak @ 89.20 – 0431 (1 min)
57 ticks

Reversal to 88.27 – 0514 (44 min)
93 ticks

Notes: Much bigger loss of inventory than expected caused a healthy long spike for 57 ticks in 1 min. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 88.78, then had an opportunity to get at least 30 ticks or more with ease. All the SMAs were below the trading action, so the spike did not cross any barriers. The reversal chopped lower, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot, andfinally reaching a low of 88.27 about 45 min after the report.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.31.12

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Jul 312012

7/31/2012 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 61.5
Actual: 65.9
Previous revision: +0.7 to 62.7
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 89.55
1st Peak @ 89.65 – 0402 (2 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 88.40 – 0408 (8 min)
125 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast with a small upward revision to the previous report. This caused a small long spike that had to fight through the 50 SMA near the origin for only 10 ticks, then surrendered and fell precipitously for 125 ticks in the next 7 min crossing the S1 and S2 Pivots, bottoming out at 88.40. The market was in a down trend prior to the report, but had been able to fend off the bears for the last hour as the traders waited on the economic news. Then the CB report came in better than expected, but not enough to bring the bulls back. This resulted in the small spike, then the downtrend resumed again with strong conviction. This is a case where you have to be careful and close out with a small profit or loss as the JOBB fills long, but do not let the market hit your stop loss as you rely on hope for the long move to reengage.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.27.12

Advance GDP Comments Off

Jul 272012

7/27/2012 Quarterly Advance GDP (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 1.5%
Actual: 1.5%
Previous Revision: -0.3% to 1.9%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 89.89
1st Peak@ 90.03 – 0231 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 89.29 – 0250 (20 min)
74 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast and produced an overall long term indecisive reaction that resulted in a seesaw above and below the 200 SMA for over 90 min. I categorized it as a SPIKE/REVERSE because it adheres to that model and then repeats it several times. Even though it matched the forecast, the forecast of only 1.5% GDP growth over a year is very dismal. A healthy economy should have a minimum of 3-3.5% and a recovering economy should be 4-5% or more. When you see the initial long reaction on the :31 bar with a matching poor forecast, do not stay in long. Look to get a few ticks and move your stop loss up to breakeven. After the initial rise, it chopped lower fighting through all of the SMAs and the PP Pivot to drop to 89.29 in 20 min. Then it climbed back to above the 3 SMAs and continued oscillating. If you look at the DX index for this time period, the trend followed the inverse of the CL, hitting a peak on the 02:50 bar then falling after that for 90 min (04:23 peak) and going sideways. With a heavy economic report like this, keep an eye on the DX to dictate what oil will do.

NG 09 12 (1 Min) 07.26.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Jul 262012

7/26/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 26B
Actual: 26B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 3.072
1st Peak @ 3.041 / Retrace to 3.100 – 0431 (1 min)
-31 ticks / 28 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.111 – 0439 (9 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 3.000 – 0513 (43 min)
111 ticks

Notes: Exactly matching report caused a double wicker spanning nearly 60 ticks on the :31 bar. It then went for a 2nd peak 11 ticks higher than the wick of the :31 bar, fighting through all 3 SMAs and the PP Pivot in a tight fist between the 3.076 and 3.081 area. Then we saw a large reversal fight through the same barriers and head down to eclipse the S1 Pivot and bottom out at the psychological level of 3.000 about 30 min after the 2nd peak. With a double wicker, a good play is too look to trap trade a breakout from the hi/lo of the :31 bar. In this case place a short entry at about 3.105 with a stop 15 ticks above, then flatten the order when it goes lower than 3.040 (the bottom of the :31 bar).

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.26.12

Durable Goods Comments Off

Jul 262012

7/26/2012 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual: -1.1%
Previous revision: +0.4% to 0.8%
Regular Forecast: 0.4%
Regular Actual: 1.6%
Previous Revision: +0.5% to 1.6%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 89.64
1st Peak @ 89.89 – 0231 (1 min)
25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 90.44 – 0238 (8 min)
80 ticks

Reverse to 89.84 – 0305 (35 min)
60 ticks

Notes: Report came in mixed, falling short on the core reading with upward revisions to the previous reports while exceeding expectations on the regular reading. Unemployment claims also broke at the same time with a strongly positive reading. The aggregate of the news was bullish, causing the initial spike and 2nd peak. The 1st peak ran into the R1 Pivot and retraced on the :32 bar. The negative core reading and the R1 Pivot caused the red bar. Then the market was able to rally again for a 2nd peak of 80 ticks by the :38 bar. After a double top, the reversal was able to achieve 60 ticks on the :05 bar, 35 min after the report. With JOBB, you could have made 12 ticks on the initial spike. When the :32 and :33 bars did not drop below the 100 SMA, that is a great setup for a long entry for the 2nd peak. Exit after the long green bar at :36 before you get a correction.

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