US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 07-14 (1 Min) 5.21.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jun 012014

5/21/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.75M
Actual: -7.23M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.08M
Actual: 0.97M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.29M
Actual: 3.40M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 103.35
1st Peak @ 103.25 – 1030:02 (1 min)
-10 ticks

Reversal to 103.50 – 1030:21 (1 min)
25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 103.08 – 1038 (8 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 103.47 – 1053 (23 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Large draw in inventories when a negligible gain was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when no change was expected, and distillates saw a moderate gain when a negligible draw was expected. The news was conflicting, and the large draw on the crude with the healthy gain on the distillates caused indecision. This resulted in a 10 tick short spike that fell to cross the 50 SMA and the R3 Mid Pivot, then a reversal of 25 ticks that extended the HOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would filled short at 103.25 with no slippage at the bottom of the short move, then unless you were quickly your stop would have taken you out for 15 ticks with no slippage 7 sec later. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 17 more ticks to cross the 200 SMA after 7 min. After that it reversed for 39 ticks to nearly reach the HOD in the next 15 min. It continued to step higher for nearly 100 ticks in the next hour as the large draw on the crude sunk in.

CL 07-14 (1 Min) 5.29.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jun 012014

5/29/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EDT)
Forecast: 0.48M
Actual: 1.66M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.28M
Actual: -1.80M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.75M
Actual: -0.20M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 103.06
1st Peak @ 103.34 – 1100:46 (1 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 103.12 – 1109 (9 min)
25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 103.58 – 1138 (38 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 103.33 – 1154 (54 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Modest gain in inventories when a negligible gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest draw when a negligible gain was expected, and distillates saw a negligible draw when a negligible gain was expected. The news was conflicting, but the draw on the gas drove the reaction. This resulted in a 28 tick long spike that rose to cross the PP Pivot and nearly reach the R1 Mid Pivot as it extended the HOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have seen a delayed rise that would have filled long right at 11 sec into the bar if not cancelled. Then it would have struggled with the PP Pivot for several seconds before eventually breaking through long after 45 sec allowing up to 17 ticks to be captured as the bar expired. Then it reversed for 25 ticks in the next 8 min back to the 20 SMA and PP Pivot before climbing for a 2nd peak of 24 more ticks in the next 30 min. After that it reversed 25 ticks to the 50 SMA in 16 min.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 5.21.2014

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Jun 012014

5/21/2014 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 136’18
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 136’23 – 1400:04 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Reversal to 136’16 – 1400:55 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 136’10 – 1405 (5 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 136’25 – 1437 (37 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 136’19 – 1508 (68 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 136’13 (on the S1 Mid Pivot) / 136’10 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 136’23 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 136’26 (just above the S1 Pivot)

Notes: The minutes offered very little surprise to essentially say that the tapering of QE3 would continue on pace. This caused the bonds to rally for 5 ticks, then quickly retreat to the origin. This would have filled your inner short entry at 136’23 then fallen quickly to give about 5-6 ticks of profit after only a minute. Then the continued reversal would have yielded another 6 ticks in the next 4 min. After that it climbed for 15 ticks for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks that nearly reached the S1 Pivot. Then the final reversal fell 6 ticks to the S2 Mid Pivot after 30 min.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 5.22.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jun 012014

5/22/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 312K
Actual: 326K
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009838 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009844 – 0830:03 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009840 – 0832:02 (3 min)
)))-4 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.009849 – 0839 (9 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.009841 – 0855 (25 min)
8 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009828 (on the LOD) / 0.009820 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009847 (just above the 200 SMA) / 0.009857 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in mildly weak with 14K more jobs lost than the forecast with no other news. This caused a dull 6 tick long spike in 3 sec that rose to cross the 100 SMA. This would have missed your inner short entry tier by 3 ticks and then hovered. Cancel the order with no fill after 20 sec. After the peak, it fell for 4 ticks in the next 2 min, then rose for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks, crossing the 200 SMA. Then it fell 8 ticks in the next 16 min to cross the 50 SMA.

NG 06-14 (1 Min) 5.22.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Jun 022014

Caption for 5/22:

5/22/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 104B
Actual: 106B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 4.455
Premature Spike @ 4.515 – 10:29:59 (0 min)
60 ticks

1st Peak @ 4.370 – 1032 (2 min)
145 ticks

Reversal to 4.402 – 1044 (14 min)
32 ticks

Notes: We saw a negligible offset coupled with a premature long spike 1 sec early. It climbed 60 ticks to reach the PP Pivot and HOD, then abruptly fell on the next sec for over 100 tick reversal. Fortunately with the settings and :59 sec setup, the order would have been rejected as it was trying to apply on the chart as the stops would have been on the wrong side of the price action. This would have kept you out of the losing trade. The premature move appears to have ruined an otherwise profitable trade that was a stable short move as it fell 145 ticks from the premature spike top and 85 ticks from the origin. After the peak, it reversed 32 ticks in the next 12 min, crossing the 13 SMA and S2 Pivot. After that it fell and traded sideways in between the S2 Pivot and LOD.

NG 07-14 (1 Min) 5.29.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Jun 022014

5/29/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 110B
Actual: 114B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 4.616
Premature Spike @ 4.665 – 10:29:59 (0 min)
49 ticks

1st Peak @ 4.529 – 1033 (3 min)
136 ticks

Reversal to 4.653 – 1136 (66 min)
124 ticks

Notes: We saw a negligible offset coupled with a premature long spike 1 sec early. It climbed 49 ticks to eclipse the R1 Pivot and extend the HOD, then abruptly fell on the next sec for over 70 tick reversal. Fortunately with the settings and :59 sec setup, the order would have been rejected as it was trying to apply on the chart as the stops would have been on the wrong side of the price action. This would have kept you out of the losing trade. Once again, the premature move appears to have ruined an otherwise profitable trade that was a stable short move as it fell 136 ticks from the premature spike top and 87 ticks from the origin to reach the S1 Mid Pivot. After the peak, it reversed 124 ticks in the next hour, nearly reaching the R1 Pivot. After that it fell and traded sideways in the vicinity of the SMAs.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 5.27.2014

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Jun 032014

5/27/2014 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 83.2
Actual: 83.0
Previous revision: -0.6 to 81.7
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 0.009808
1st Bar Movement: 0.009807 to 0.009810
3 ticks

Notes: Report basically matched the forecast with a small downward revision to the previous reading. This caused a dull reaction with only 3 tick span of movement on the :01 bar and 2 ticks from the anchor point. It rose to hit the S2 Mid Pivot and then retreated. Cancel the order after no fill within 10 sec and with the near match on the forecast.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 5.27.2014

Durable Goods Comments Off

Jun 032014

5/27/2014 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.1%
Previous revision: +0.4% to 2.4%
Regular Forecast: -0.5%
Regular Actual: 0.8%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to 2.9%
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.009812 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009787 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))-25 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009811 – 0830:07 (1 min)
)))24 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.009804 – 0837 (7 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 0.009815 – 0917 (47 min)
11 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009800 (on the S3 Pivot) / 0.009792 (just below the S4 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009823 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009832 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Report came in mixed with the core reading barely falling short of the forecast by 0.1%, while the regular reading exceeded the forecast by 1.3% and both had bullish revisions. With the mixed news, this caused a sizeable unsustainable short move of 25 ticks that eclipsed the S4 Pivot and extended the LOD before a full retreat 1 sec later. With the Trap Trade, you would have seen the short spike fill both your inner and outer long entries with about 5 ticks to spare. Then it reversed for 24 ticks in the next 6 sec and hovered on the S2 Pivot for the rest of the bar allowing an easy exit with 24 total ticks. After that it pulled back to the S3 Mid Pivot 6 min later, then reversed 11 ticks in the next 40 min, crossing all 3 Major SMAs, the OOD, and S1 Mid Pivot. Of note, the Pivots were spaced very close together as the previous day was a US Holiday with little price action or market volume.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 5.29.2014

Prelim GDP, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jun 042014

5/29/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 321K
Actual: 300K
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.009843 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009854 – 0830:07 (1 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009846 – 0830:21 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.009852 – 0830:42 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009838 – 0832:26 (3 min)
)))-14 ticks
————
Extended Reversal to 0.009826 – 0902 (32 min)
26 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009831 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009823 (on the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009854 (just above the R2 Pivot) / 0.009862 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in strong with 21K less jobs lost than the forecast with a very disappointing prelim GDP that fell 1.0%. This caused a 11 long spike that crossed the 200 SMA and the R2 Pivot, then fell to eventually reverse about 16 ticks. This would have barely filled or just missed your inner short entry tier depending upon your placement (54 or lower would have filled). If filled, you would have seen it fall to give you 8 ticks immediately, then pullback and fall to allow up to 16 ticks to be captured on the :33 bar. The GDP #s drove the initial long spike, then the claims took over. It fell another 12 ticks in the next 30 min as it crossed the R1 Mid Pivot.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 5.29.2014

7y Bond Auction Comments Off

Jun 042014

5/29/2014 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.32/2.6
Actual: 2.01/2.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 138’25 (1301)
1st Peak @ 138’21 – 1304 (3 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 138’26 – 1308 (7 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 138’08 – 1358 (57 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 138’18 – 1441 (100 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.01 fell quite a bit from last month. This caused a 4 tick short move in 3 min as it crossed the R1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled initially at 138’23 with no slippage. It would have fallen and hovered for about 3-4 min between 1 and 2 ticks of profit. I had my profit target at 138’21 and it did not fill, so I moved the stop on the reversal to 138’27, just above the 100 SMA and waited for a 2nd peak. Then I captured the 2 ticks on the 2nd peak on the :16 bar. It continued to fall for a total of 13 more ticks in the next 50 min as it crossed the PP Pivot. Then it reversed 10 ticks in the next 43 min to the 100 SMA and OOD.

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