US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 10-14 (1 Min) 9.4.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Sep 092014

9/4/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EDT)
Forecast: -1.11M
Actual: -0.91M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.33M
Actual: -2.32M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.50M
Actual: 0.61M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 94.97
1st Peak @ 95.28 – 1100:00 (1 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 94.62 – 1108 (8 min)
56 ticks

Pullback to 94.99 – 1124 (24 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 94.33 – 1137 (37 min)
66 ticks

Notes: Negligible draw in inventories when a slightly greater draw was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate draw when a modest draw was expected, and distillates saw a negligible gain when a negligible draw was expected. This caused a shortly sustained long spike of 31 ticks that started above the 100 SMA and rose to cross the PP Pivot and OOD in the first sec. It quickly backed off and hovered about halfway up the spike. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have been filled long at about 95.12 with 5 ticks of slippage, then seen it briefly show 16 ticks of profit before retreating to chop around the fill point for 40 sec. It spent most of the time in the green, so look to exit with 2-5 ticks. The reversal took over and fell 56 ticks to the S1 Mid Pivot in 7 min. Then it pulled back 37 ticks in the next 16 min to the 100 SMA. After that it reversed for 66 ticks in 13 min, but could not reach the S1 Pivot.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 8.28.2014

7y Bond Auction Comments Off

Sep 092014

8/28/2014 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.25/2.6
Actual: 2.05/2.6
DULL REACTION
Started @ 141’20 (1301)
1st Peak @ 141’23 – 1302 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 141’13 – 1341 (40 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 141’23 – 1436 (95 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 141’19 – 1442 (101 min)
4 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.05 fell from last month while the bid to cover ratio remained very strong at 2.6. This caused a dull reaction that did not move more that 1 tick on the :02 bar, then achieved 2 ticks on the :03 bar, crossing the R2 Pivot and reaching the 50/100 SMAs. With JOBB, you would not have seen an impulse to fill the long entry until after the :02 bar expired, so cancel the order. If you did not cancel, you would have been filled at the early part of the :03 bar at 141’22 with no slippage then allowed an exit at breakeven as it hovered between the fill point and 1 tick of profit for almost all of the :03 bar. After that it reversed for 10 ticks in 39 min to the R1 Pivot, then pulled back to recover the lost ground in the next 55 min to the R2 Pivot and 200 SMA. Then it fell 4 ticks in the next 6 min to the 100/50 SMAs.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 8.28.2014

Prelim GDP, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Sep 092014

8/28/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 299K
Actual: 298K
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.009640 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009621 – 0830:04 (1 min)
)))-19 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009635 – 0830:13 (1 min)
)))14 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.009641 – 0838 (8 min)
20 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009630 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009622 (just above the LOD / on S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009651 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.009658 (just above the HOD / R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in matching with only 1k offset while the concurrently released Prelim GDP came in 0.3% better than the forecast to cause a short reaction of 19 ticks. This would have taken 4 sec to breach the inner and outer long entry tiers to give you an average entry of 0.009626. Since it crossed the PP Pivot and hit the LOD, it retreated quickly to hover around the 0.009632 area to allow an easy fast exit with about 10-14 total ticks. If you were patient, you could have secured up to 16 more ticks as it rose in the next 7 min to the 20 SMA and R1 Pivot. After the reversal, it traded sideways.

NG 10-14 (1 Min) 8.28.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Sep 092014

8/28/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 79B
Actual: 75B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 4.028
1st Peak @ 4.101 – 1030:00 (1 min)
73 ticks

Reversal to 4.049 – 1030:23 (1 min)
52 ticks

Continued Reversal to 4.038 – 1035 (5 min)
62 ticks

Pullback to 4.066 – 1054 (24 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 4.002 – 1127 (57 min)
64 ticks
Extended Reversal to 3.973 – 1241 (131 min)
93 ticks

Notes: We saw a smaller gain on the reserve compared to the forecast by 4BCF which caused a quick long spike of 73 ticks after a premature short move of 12 ticks 1 sec before the report. The spike rose to cross the R2 Pivot, then collapsed back to the area of the R1 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 4.072 with about 34 ticks of slippage, then seen it pop up another 30 ticks and crash. It hovered around 4.076 for about 8 sec allowing an exit with a handful of ticks. Then it reversed for a total of 52 ticks from the top of the peak a few sec later. If you had not exited before that, you would have been stopped out here. It chopped for the next 5 min between the R1 Pivot and 100 SMA before pulling back to cross the R1 Pivot 19 min later. Then it reversed for a total of 93 ticks in the next 2 hrs to the S1 Mid Pivot.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 9.2.2014

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Sep 192014

9/2/2014 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 57.0
Actual: 59.0
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009527
1st Peak @ 0.009516 – 1000:00 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.009527 – 1005 (5 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009505 – 1026 (26 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 0.009519 – 1056 (56 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 0.009510 – 1054 (54 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report came in strongly above the forecast with a deviation of 2.0 pts and came the closest to the psychological level of 60 in years. This caused a quick short spike of 11 ticks that started on the 20 SMA and fell to extend the LOD. It retraced for several ticks in the early part of the bar, then fell to settle around 0.009519. Since this was the day after a US holiday, the Pivots were distorted and out of the picture. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 009521 with 2 ticks of slippage, then look to exit where it hovered late in the :01 bar for about 2 ticks. After the peak, it reversed back to the origin in 4 min producing a perfect opportunity for a short entry for a 2nd peak trade. A short entry at 0.009526 on the 20 SMA would have been ideal for 15+ ticks. It fell for 22 ticks in 21 min, extending the LOD and using the 13 SMA as resistance. An exit around 0.009512 would have been safe after several minutes of trading sideways. Then it reversed 14 ticks in the next 30 min, crossing the 50 SMA. After that it pulled back 9 ticks and traded sideways on the 50 SMA.

ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 9.10.2014

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Sep 192014

9/10/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.44/2.8
Actual: 2.54/2.7
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 137’09 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 137’04 – 1304:26 (4 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Reversal to 137’07 – 1304:46 (4 min)
)))3 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 137’03 – 1309 (8 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 137’12 – 1336 (35 min)
9 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 137’04 (just below the S2 Pivot / on the LOD) / 137’01 (No SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 137’14 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 137’17 (No SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose a bit from last month’s auction. This caused the ZB to pop short for only 2 ticks on the :02 bar then another 3 ticks on the next 3 bars. This would have missed the inner long entry after 1 min, so cancel the order. After hitting the LOD, it reversed 3 ticks, then fell 4 ticks a few min later. Then it reversed 9 ticks, crossing the 3 major SMAs and the S2 Mid Pivot.

ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 9.11.2014

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

Sep 192014

9/11/2014 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.22/2.6
Actual: 3.24/2.7
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 137’08 (1301)
1st Peak @ 137’19 – 1303:06 (2 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 137’14 – 1305 (4 min)
5 ticks

Double top to 137’19 – 1308 (7 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 137’09 – 1323 (22 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 137’15 – 1334 (33 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 137’07 – 1346 (45 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose slightly from last month, but the demand rose. This caused the bonds to spike long for a healthy reaction of 11 ticks that started on the 100 / 50 SMAs and R1 Mid Pivot then rose to cross the 200 SMA and R2 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled long at 137’13 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it hover around 137’17 near the R2 Pivot for over a minute for an ideal exit of 4-5 ticks. It peaked at 137’19 early in the :04 bar, then chopped in the next 5 min. Then it reversed 10 ticks in the next 15 min to the R1 Mid Pivot. After that it pulled back for 6 ticks in 11 min before reversing for 8 ticks in the next 22 min.

ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 9.12.2014

Retail Sales Comments Off

Sep 202014

9/12/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.3%
Previous revision: +0.2% to 0.3%
Regular Forecast: 0.3%
Regular Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to 0.3%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 136’17
1st Peak @ 136’21 – 0830:04 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 136’11 – 0832 (2 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 136’16 – 0833 (3 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 136’07 – 0838 (8 min)
9 ticks

Pullback to 136’16 – 0848 (18 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 136’02 – 0912 (42 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report was strong exceeding the forecasts by 0.1% and 0.3% margins with healthy upward previous revisions. Import Prices also released at the same time, falling slightly short of the forecast. This caused a brief long spike for 5 ticks that reversed quickly then continued an overall downtrend over the next hour. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 136’20 with no slippage, then seen it fall and stop you out with -4 ticks immediately. The tight stop still makes this report safer when it is unstable. After the reversal fell 10 ticks in the early part of the :32 bar, it established a pattern of pullback followed by reversal, carving out new lows, using the 50 SMA as resistance, while crossing the S4 Mid Pivot 42 min after the report.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 9.4.2014

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Sep 212014

9/4/2014 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 218K
Actual: 204K
Previous revision: -6K to 212K
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009510 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009516 – 0815:21 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Hovered near 0.009516 for 1 min
————
2nd Peak @ 0.009529 – 0820 (5 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.009524 – 0821 (6 min)
5 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009502 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot) / 0.009492 (just below the S3 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009520 (on the 50 SMA / S2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009530 (on the 200 SMA/ S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in mildly worse than the forecast by 14k jobs causing a tame slow reaction overall that yielded 6 ticks long in 21 sec, then hovered around the 20 SMA for about 1 min without reversing. That would have missed the inner short entry by 4 ticks, making it an easy decision to cancel the order. We see the guidelines would have avoided a losing setup for the trap trade as a gradual rise is not going to work out. It continued to climb for another 13 ticks in the next 4 min to the 200 SMA / S1 Mid Pivot. Then it backed off 5 ticks and traded sideways into the unemployment claims and trade balance reports.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 9.4.2014

Trade Balance, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Sep 212014

9/4/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 298K
Actual: 302K
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.009531 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009546 – 0830:23 (1 min)
)))15 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009532 – 0831:07 (2 min)
)))-14 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.009524 – 0837 (7 min)
22 ticks

Pullback to 0.009535 – 0844 (14 min)
11 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009521 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009512 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009541 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009550 (on the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching with only 4k offset while the concurrently released Trade Balance came in 2.0B better than the forecast to conflict and cause a long reaction of 15 ticks. This would filled your inner tier and fallen short of the outer by 4-5 ticks. Then it would have reversed quickly for 14 ticks in the early part of the :02 bar, then continued for another 8 ticks in the next 5 min. Look to exit below the PP Pivot for about 9-10 ticks. After struggling with the S1 Pivot and reaching the 100 SMA, it pulled back for 11 ticks in the next 7 min to the PP Pivot.

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