US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 8.20.2014

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Aug 312014

8/20/2014 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 139’26
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 139’18 – 1400:08 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 139’26 – 1400:54 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Pullback to 139’18 – 1401:49 (2 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 139’23 – 1403:00 (3 min)
)))5 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 139’11 – 1423 (23 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 139’23 – 1500 (60 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 139’21 (just below the 50 SMA) / 139’17 (just below the LOD)
Short entries – 139’31 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 140’03 (just above the HOD)

Notes: With tapering down to $25B and perceived 2 more steps to end QE3, the minutes revealed that the FED was closer to consensus on an exit strategy and may end stimulus sooner than expected. This caused a large short reaction of 8 ticks that started just above the S1 Mid Pivot and fell to reach the LOD, then quickly reversed back to the origin. This would have filled your inner long entry at 139’21, then fallen another 3 ticks to fall 1 tick short of the outer tier. Then it reversed 8 ticks back to the origin in the next 46 sec. It hovered between 139’25 and 139’26 to allow an exit with 4-5 ticks. Be sure to exit quickly on FED trades after an opportunity when it reverses near the origin. It fell for a double bottom 1 min later, then reversed 5 ticks to the 200 SMA. Then it stepped lower for a final peak of 7 more ticks, crossing the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed for 12 ticks in the next 37 min as it crossed the 200 SMA.

ZC 07-15 (1 Min) 6.10.2015

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Jun 222015

6/10/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) / Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 362.25
1st Peak @ 360.00 – 1200:18 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 364.50 – 1201:14 (2 min)
18 ticks

Pullback to 361.25 – 1201:56 (2 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 364.75 – 1216 (16 min)
14 ticks

2nd Peak @ 356.75 – 1320 (80 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 360.00 – 1401 (121 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a small roller coaster type reaction. It fell only 9 ticks to reach the LOD in 18 sec, then hovered within 2 ticks of the LOD for 7 sec before reversing. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 361.00 with no slippage. Then it hovered around 360.25 to allow about 3 ticks to be captured. When it makes a small move and stalls, it almost always reverses strongly, so an exit or reversal would be prudent. Then it reversed 18 ticks in about 1 min to cross the S1 Mid Pivot and nearly reach the OOD before pulling back 13 ticks in 42 sec to the 50/100 SMAs. Then it reversed 14 ticks for a double top on the OOD in 14 min before falling for a 2nd peak of 13 more ticks to the S3 Mid Pivot in 64 min. After that it reversed 13 ticks in 41 min to the S2 Pivot.

ZS 11-14 (1 min) 8.12.2014

WASDE - Beans Comments Off

Sep 012014

8/12/2014 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1032.75 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 1028.25 – 1200:58 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 1037.00 – 1201:21 (2 min)
35 ticks

Pullback to 1028.75 – 1201:50 (2 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 1041.00 – 1203 (3 min)
49 ticks

Pullback to 1033.25 – 1216 (16 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 1045.25 -1230 (30 min)
48 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case the initial reaction would have been safe to trade, but that is often not the case. it would have been tame as it hovered on the S1 Mid Pivot, then on the S1 Pivot to provide an anchor point at 1032.75 at 32 sec. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled at 1031.25 with no slippage, then fallen a little more to allow about 10-12 ticks to be captured when it hovered at the bottom of the bar. Since the fill was short and continuing in the initial direction of the spike, look for a smaller target and exit quickly. Since it hovered for 13 sec below 1029.75, exit then. After that the reversal rebounded for 35 ticks in 23 sec to the S1 Mid Pivot, then pulled back for a double bottom 30 sec later. Then it reversed for 49 ticks in the next bar to the PP Pivot and 13 SMA. After that the market calmed down and the swings took longer as it pulled back 31 ticks in 13 min to the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed 48 ticks to the 100 SMA in the next 14 min. It continued to step higher into the close.

NG 09-14 (1 Min) 8.14.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Sep 012014

8/14/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 81B
Actual: 78B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 3.876
1st Peak @ 3.947 – 1030:00 (1 min)
71 ticks

Reversal to 3.895 – 1034 (4 min)
52 ticks

Pullback to 3.939 – 1116 (46 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 3.907 – 1146 (76 min)
32 ticks

Notes: We saw a smaller gain on the reserve compared to the forecast by 3BCF which caused a long spike that started just above the PP Pivot and rose to cross the R1 Pivot and extend the HOD for 71 ticks in the first second. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 3.919 with about 33 ticks of slippage, then seen it oscillate around the R1 Pivot for the first 30 sec of the :31 bar. A profit target of 25 ticks or less would have easily filled. Otherwise, look to exit around 3.940 with about 20 ticks. It reversed for a total of 52 ticks in the next 3 bars as it crossed the R1 Mid Pivot and nearly reached the 13 SMA. Then it slowly pulled back for 44 ticks in the next 42 min, using the 13/20 SMAs for support until it crossed the R1 Pivot. Then it reversed 32 ticks in the next 30 min to the 100 SMA.

NG 09-14 (1 Min) 8.21.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Sep 012014

8/21/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 83B
Actual: 88B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.906
1st Peak @ 3.795 – 1030:07 (1 min)
111 ticks

Reversal to 3.826 – 1031:07 (2 min)
45 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.786 – 1034 (4 min)
120 ticks

Reversal to 3.814 – 1039 (9 min)
28 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast by 5BCF which caused a late breaking short spike that fell 39 ticks in the first second then retreated quickly for 26 ticks before falling to match the low. There was a premature long spike of 32 ticks 3 sec before the report and 2 sec before the bracket setup. The true spike started at the top of the premature move and fell to cross all 3 Major SMAs, the S1 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD in 7 sec. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 3.855 with about 41 ticks of slippage, then seen it continue to fall and stall around 3.800. A profit target of anything less than 60 ticks would have easily filled, otherwise look to exit around 3.800 with 50+ ticks. It reversed for 45 ticks after 1 min, then fell for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks on the :34 bar. A manual buy order setup around the S1 Pivot for the 3 min reversal would have been perfect here for about 20 ticks on a quick exit. The reversal only achieved 28 ticks in 5 min as it reached the S1 Mid Pivot. After that it traded sideways below the S1 Mid Pivot.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 8.21.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Sep 032014

8/21/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 302K
Actual: 298K
TRAP TRADE (DULL -NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009634 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009629 – 0830:06 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009637 – 0832:33 (3 min)
)))8 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.009642 – 0848 (18 min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009624 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 0.009614 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009643 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009653 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in narrowly impressive with a 4k offset to cause a short reaction of only 5 ticks. The move was well short of the inner tier short entry as of 20 sec into the bar, so cancel the order or manually move the buy order up to 0.009630 when it stalled and hovered there for over 30 sec and look for about 8-10 ticks until it tries to cross the 13 SMA or hits the S1 Mid Pivot. It reversed for 8 ticks in 2 min, stalled, then reversed for another 5 ticks to reach the S1 Mid Pivot after 18 min.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 8.26.2014

Durable Goods Comments Off

Sep 042014

8/26/2014 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual: -0.8%
Previous revision: +1.1% to 1.9%
Regular Forecast: 7.8%
Regular Actual: 22.6%
Previous Revision: +1.0% to 1.7%
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009620 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009612 – 0830:03 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009628 – 0832:09 (3 min)
)))16 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.009622 – 0841 (11 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.009630 – 0849 (19 min)
8 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009610 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 0.009602 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009630 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009640 (just above the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Very strange report came in widely bipolar as the Core reading fell short of the forecast by 1.3% while the broader reading exceeded the forecast by nearly 15% on a surge of plane orders. Both readings also saw healthy previous revisions upward of about 1.0%. This caused a relatively tame short move of only 8 ticks that crossed the OOD and reversed. This would have been 2 ticks short of the inner long entry and did not come near it again, so cancel the order. It reversed for 16 ticks in the next 2min as it crossed all 3 major SMAs and nearly reached the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back for 6 ticks in the next 8 min to the 100 SMA before reversing to the R2 Mid Pivot 8 min later.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 8.26.2014

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Sep 042014

8/26/2014 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 89.1
Actual: 92.4
Previous revision: -0.6 to 90.3
DULL REACTION…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009627
1st Peak @ 0.009622 – 1000:00 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 0.009627 – 1003 (3 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009616 – 1011 (11 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.009622 – 1029 (29 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast with a moderate downward revision to the previous reading. This caused a short reaction of only 5 ticks that started on the 50 SMA and fell to cross the 100 and 200 SMAs and R1 Pivot. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 0.009623 with no slippage then allowed an exit at Breakeven as it hovered for almost the entire :01 bar. After a reversal to the origin 2 min later, it fell for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks to cross the PP Pivot in 8 min. Then it reversed for 6 ticks to the R1 Mid Pivot 18 min later.

CL 10-14 (1 Min) 8.20.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Sep 082014

8/20/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.16M
Actual: -4.47M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.59M
Actual: 0.59M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.55M
Actual: -0.96M
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 93.45
1st Peak @ 93.30 – 1030:14 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 93.41 – 1030:32 (1 min)
11 ticks

Pullback to 93.23 – 1031:08 (2 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 93.58 – 1034 (4 min)
25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 93.14 – 1044 (14 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 93.47 – 1052 (22 min)
33 ticks

Notes: Healthy draw in inventories when a modest draw was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a modest draw was expected, and distillates saw a slightly larger negligible draw when a negligible draw was expected. This caused a conflicted dull reaction initially that failed to launch more than 10 ticks away from the origin until 14 sec into the bar. After attempting to go long in a muted move, it eventually fell and crossed the 50/100 SMAs, then retreated, before falling to reach the 200 SMA early in the :32 bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have seen all movement contained inside of the bracket in the first 10 sec, so cancel the order on the lack of conviction. We see a fill would have happened short at about 93.34 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen some heat and chopped around the fill point before continuing to fall late in the :31 bar and into the :32 bar to allow about 8-10 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed 25 ticks in the next 2 minutes to extend the LOD on the influence of the crude. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 9 more tick to reach the PP Pivot, before reversing to the S1 Mid Pivot 8 min later. After that it sold off for the next 80 min.

CL 10-14 (1 Min) 8.27.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Sep 092014

8/27/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.29M
Actual: -2.07M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.08M
Actual: -0.96M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.44M
Actual: 1.25M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 94.16
1st Peak @ 93.98 – 1030:00 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 94.21 – 1030:47 (1 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 93.76 – 1034 (4 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 94.19 – 1047 (17 min)
43 ticks

Notes: Modest draw in inventories when a lesser draw was expected, while gasoline saw a near matching modest draw, and distillates saw a modest gain when a negligible draw was expected. This caused a conflicted reaction initially that fell 18 ticks in the first sec to cross the 100 SMA then chopped around the fill point before reversing above the origin late in the bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have been filled short at about 94.14 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it retreat to 9 ticks of heat and fall back to hover between 2-4 ticks of profit for about 5 sec. Look to exit there as the reaction has several barriers to contend with, it failed to sustain the drop, and none of the product results has significant deviation from the forecast. The initial reaction does present other opportunities. Look to buy the dips and sell the peaks. The 2nd Peak to 93.76 was a great long entry as it fell 30 ticks in about 30 sec, crossed the PP Pivot, and pulled up before hitting the LOD. Look to exit when it comes back to the SMAs. On the other hand, notice the 4 attempts in the past hour to climb above the 94.15 area failed, so shorting the 47 bar would be wise. Look to exit around 94.00 or be patient and ride out the longer term short move that took over.

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