US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ES 09-14 (1 Min) 8.1.2014

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Aug 242014

8/1/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 231K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 209K
Previous Revision: +10K to 298K
Rate Forecast: 6.1%
Rate Actual: 6.2%
TRAP TRADE – TIER 2 (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 1913.25 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1922.00 – 0830:18 (1 min)
)))35 ticks

)))Reversal to 1919.50 – 0830:26 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Pullback to 1925.00 – 0830:45 (1 min)
)))22 ticks

)))Reversal to 1918.00 – 0831:34 (2 min)
)))28 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1926.75 – 0849 (19 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 1918.00 – 0918 (48 min)
35 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1907.00 (No SMA/ Pivot near) / 1903.25 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 1919.50 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 1923.75 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Moderately negative report with 22K less jobs added than the forecast, a small upward revision to the previous report and an uptick of 0.1% in the U-3 rate. We saw a long spike of 35 ticks in the first 18 sec then a brief reversal followed by another push for 12 more ticks after 45 sec. This would have filled the inner short tier on initial burst, then the outer tier on the next move. With an average short position of 1921.75, look to exit at about 1919.50 for 17 total ticks. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks after 19 min, then it reversed 35 ticks in the next 29 min to the 100 SMA.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 8.5.2014

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Aug 262014

8/5/2014 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 56.6
Actual: 58.7
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009734
1st Peak @ 0.009729 – 1000:01 (1 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009726 – 1003 (3 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.009732 – 1008 (8 min)
6 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.009717 – 1033 (33 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.009729 – 1103 (63 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Strongly positive report exceeded the forecast by 2.1 points. This caused a short reaction of only 5 ticks that started between the 13 SMA and the LOD and fell to extend the LOD. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.009731 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with 1-2 ticks in the latter part of the :31 bar after some retracement. It was restrained from going much lower due to extending the LOD, but managed to capture many more ticks in the follow on reaction. After falling 3 more ticks to the S3 Mid Pivot on the :03 bar, it reversed for 6 ticks back to the 13 SMA in 5 min. Then it fell for a final peak of 9 more ticks to nearly reach the S3 Pivot just after the bottom of the hour. Then it reversed for 12 ticks in the next 30 min , crossing the S3 Mid Pivot and 100 SMA and continued to step higher over several hours.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 8.6.2014

Trade Balance Comments Off

Aug 282014

8/6/2014 Monthly Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: -44.2B
Actual: -41.5B
Previous Revision: -0.3B to -44.7B
DULL REACTION
Started @ 0.009774
1st Peak @ 0.009769 – 0832 (2 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 0.009784 – 0835 (5 min)
15 ticks

Pullback to 0.009771 – 0854 (24 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 2.7B to cause a dull spike of 5 ticks over 2 bars as it found heavy support with the convergence of all 3 Major SMAs and the R1 Pivot. With JOBB you may have cancelled as the reaction would have hit the short entry at about 7-8 sec, otherwise you would have been filled at 0.009771 with no slippage. Look to exit at 71 or 70 in the middle of the SMAs as the struggle is evident it cannot go lower. After the :32 bar, it reversed for 15 ticks in only 3 min, crossing the R2 mid Pivot and extending the HOD. Then it pulled back 13 ticks in the next 20 min to reached the 100/200 SMAs again. It continued to swing up and down as the influence of the report wore off.

CL 09-14 (1 Min) 8.13.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Aug 302014

8/13/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -2.03M
Actual: 1.40M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.06M
Actual: -1.16M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.21M
Actual: -2.42M
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 97.23
1st Peak @ 96.93 – 1031:07 (1 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 97.11 – 1032 (2 min)
18 ticks

Final Peak @ 96.75 – 1113 (43 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 97.12 – 1136 (66 min)
37 ticks

Notes: Modest gain in inventories when a modest draw was expected, while gasoline saw a near matching modest draw, and distillates saw a modest draw when a negligible draw was expected. This caused a dull reaction initially that failed to launch more than 10 ticks away from the origin until 12 sec into the bar. It eventually crossed the S1 Mid Pivot and extended the LOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have seen all movement contained inside of the bracket in the first 10 sec, so cancel the order on the lack of conviction. We see a fill would have happened short at 97.13 with no slippage, then seen some heat before continuing to fall late in the :31 bar and into the :32 bar to allow about 18 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed 18 ticks in the next minute back to the S1 Mid Pivot. It stepped down to a final peak of 18 more ticks, crossing the S1 Pivot after the top of the hour. Then it reversed for 37 ticks back to the S1 Mid Pivot and 100 SMA about an hour after the report.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 8.7.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Aug 302014

8/7/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 305K
Actual: 289K
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009778 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009771 – 0830:09 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009776 – 0830:18 (1 min)
)))5 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.009770 – 0833 (3 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.009783 – 0856 (26 min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009768 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 0.009760 (just below the LOD)
Short entries – 0.009786 (above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009796 (just above the OOD)

Notes: Report came in impressive with 16k offset to cause a short reaction of 7 ticks. The move was just a few ticks short of the inner tier long entry as of 20 sec into the bar, so cancel the order. It reversed for 5 ticks, then pulled back 6 ticks, but could not reach the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed for 13 ticks to the SMAs in the next 23 min.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 8.14.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Aug 302014

8/14/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 307K
Actual: 311K
TRAP TRADE (DULL -NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009764 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009772 – 0830:02 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009767 – 0830:23 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.009776 – 0843 (13 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.009767 – 0910 (40 min)
9 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009756 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009744 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009774 (above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009783 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in narrowly disappointing with a 4k offset to cause a long reaction of 8 ticks. The move was just a few ticks short of the inner tier short entry as of 20 sec into the bar, so cancel the order. It reversed for 5 ticks, then pulled back for a double top on the :33 bar. Then it continued to rally for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks as it crossed the R1 Mid Pivot and extended the HOD after 12 min. Then it reversed for 9 ticks, to the 100 SMA and PP Pivot after 27 min.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 8.15.2014

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Aug 302014

8/15/2014 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (0955 EDT)
Forecast: 82.7
Actual: 79.2
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.0009742 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009749 – 0955:03 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009742 – 1004 (9 min)
)))-7 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009736 (just below the LOD) / 0.009728 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009748 (just above the 200 SMA) / 0.009758 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in lower than the forecast by 3.5 points causing a 7 tick long spike after only 3 sec as it crossed the 200 SMA and S2 Mid Pivot. This would have filled your inner short entry with 1 ticks to spare. Then be patient and wait for it to reverse back to the origin as it can be quick or take a few minutes. It trickled lower with several barriers to cross and reached the 100/50 SMAs after 8 min to allow about 5-6 ticks to be captured. Then it achieved a double top 12 min later followed by a reversal back to the S2 Pivot 16 min later.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 8.13.2014

Retail Sales Comments Off

Aug 312014

8/13/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.4%
Core Actual: 0.1%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 138’22
1st Peak @ 138’30 – 0830:29 (1 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 139’07 – 0902 (32 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 138’30 – 0935 (65 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report was weak missing the forecasts by 0.3% and 0.2% margins with no previous revisions. This caused a stable long reaction of 12 ticks that started on the 100 SMA and rose to cross the OOD, the S1 Mid Pivot, and extend the HOD. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 138’26 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture 2-3 ticks near the S1 Mid Pivot as it hovered near the top in the :31 and :32 bars. After a minimal reversal, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks in the next 31 min offering a nice long entry opportunity when it bounced off of the 13/20 SMAs at 0845. It crossed the PP Pivot and reached the R1 mid Pivot, then reversed for 9 ticks in 33 min back to the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it rallied again in the longterm.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 8.13.2014

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Aug 312014

8/13/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.60/2.6
Actual: 2.44/2.8
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 139’11 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 139’08 – 1301:47 (1 min)
)))-3 ticks

)))Reversal to 139’10 – 1302:39 (2 min)
)))2 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 139’06 – 1305 (4 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 139’18 – 1328 (27 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 139’07 (just below the 200 SMA / R1 Mid Pivot) / 139’03 (just below the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 139’15 (No SMA/Pivot near) / 139’18 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell a bit from last month’s auction. This caused the ZB to pop short for only 3 ticks, then back off for only 2 ticks after about 1 min. This would have missed the inner long entry, so cancel the order. After the reversal, it fell for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks after 2 min, then reversed for 12 ticks in the next 23 min to the R2 Mid Pivot.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 8.14.2014

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

Aug 312014

8/14/2014 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.37/2.4
Actual: 3.22/2.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 139’19 (1301)
1st Peak @ 139’30 – 1302:06 (1 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 140’01 – 1306 (5 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 139’21 – 1315 (14 min)
12 ticks

Pullback to 139’27 – 1333 (32 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell from last month, but the demand rose. This caused the bonds to spike long for a healthy reaction of 11 ticks that started on the 100 SMA and rose to cross the 200 SMA and R1 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled long at 139’24 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it hover at 139’29 for 10 sec for an ideal exit of 5 ticks. After a small reversal, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks in the next 4 min to eclipse the R2 Mid Pivot and reach the HOD. Then it fell for 12 ticks to the 200 SMA in the next 9 min. After that it pulled back for 6 ticks and trended upward in the long run.

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