Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 03-13 (1 Min) 1.31.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 052013

1/31/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 362K
Actual: 368K
DULL REACTION
Started @ 97.49
1st Peak @ 97.41 – 0831 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 97.62 – 0839 (9 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Report came in slightly worse than the forecast by 6K jobs, causing a dull and unsustainable 8 tick reaction on the :31 bar. Since the market was already testing the LOD and the S1 Pivot, it reversed for 21 ticks in the following 8 min to just below the 50 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the :31 bar at 97.42 with no slippage, then seen it hover in the red within a few ticks of our your fill position. With a result close to the forecast, look to exit near the break even.

CL 03-13 (1 Min) 1.24.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 052013

1/24/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 359K
Actual: 330K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.78
1st Peak @ 95.88 – 0831 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 95.77 – 0832 (2 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 96.12 – 0847 (17 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 95.88 – 0855 (25 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Report came in strongly better than the forecast by almost 30K jobs, but only caused a 10 tick spike initially that ran into the barely established HOD and promptly fell on the next bar back to the origin. After the initial move, it trended higher riding the 13 and 20 SMAs. It achieved a 2nd peak of 34 ticks about 15 min after the 1st peak, then reversed for 24 ticks in the following 8 min to just above the 50 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled long on the :31 bar at 95.85 with no slippage, then seen it hover within a few ticks of your fill position. The conservative play would be to get out near break even; however, if you noticed the results of the report and the market “failing to launch”, stay in and patiently wait for more. The triple top at 95.97 would have offered up to 10 ticks or the 3 strong long bars just after that offered a better exit. Remember if it shoots for a 2nd peak, the 17 min mark is often when it hits.

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 5.1.2013

Oil Inventory Comments Off

May 052013

5/1/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.2M
Actual: 6.7M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 91.00
1st Peak @ 90.35 – 1033 (3 min)
65 ticks

Reversal to 90.86 – 1105 (35 min)
51 ticks

2nd Peak @ 90.11 – 1158 (88 min)
89 ticks

Reversal to 91.03 – 1317 (167 min)
92 ticks

Notes: Large gain in crude inventories when a smaller gain was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate draw and distillates saw a small draw. Commercial oil inventories continue to be categorized as above their upper limit. This caused a short move of 65 ticks that bottomed on the :33 bar. The initial spike used the 100 and 50 SMAs as resistance to propel the move, then crossed the S3 Pivot and extended the LOD 27 ticks. Then the reversal took over to reclaim 51 ticks in about 30 min up to the 100 SMA. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at about 90.87 with 3 ticks of slippage. Look to exit at about 90.62 with the LOD and S3 Pivot. The :32 bar would have crashed through there giving you 25 ticks. After the initial reversal, it stepped down to a 2nd Peak of 24 more ticks about 90 min after the report, using the 50 SMA as resistance. Then it reversed for 92 ticks in about 80 min crossing all 3 majors SMAs and the S3 Pivot.

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 4.24.2013

Oil Inventory Comments Off

May 052013

4/24/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.8M
Actual: 0.9M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 90.31
1st Peak @ 90.47 – 1031 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 90.11 – 1031 (1 min)
-36 ticks

2nd Peak @ 91.11 – 1202 (92 min)
80 ticks

Reversal to 90.71 – 1238 (128 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Minimal gain in crude inventories when a more sizable gain was expected, while gasoline saw a large draw and distillates saw no change. Commercial oil inventories are categorized as above their upper limit though. This prompted an indecisive scenario that rallied for 16 ticks first before reversing for 36 ticks on the :31 bar. The gasoline draw caused the long move, then the large inventories of crude reversed the sentiment. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at about 90.44 with 3 ticks of slippage, then been stopped almost immediately as it left the wick naked at 90.26 with 3 ticks of slippage. After the initial indecision, it chopped sideways and eventually returned to the bullish trend in place before the report as the gasoline results drove it up to over $91 about an hour after the report.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 4.17.2013

Oil Inventory Comments Off

May 052013

4/17/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.2M
Actual: -1.2M
INDECISIVE…DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 87.88
1st Peak @ 87.61 – 1031 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 87.96 – 1031 (1 min)
35 ticks

Final Peak @ 86.06 – 1230 (120 min)
182 ticks

Reversal to 86.89 – 1325 (175 min)
52 ticks

Notes: Moderate draw in crude inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a minimal draw and distillates saw a healthy gain. This prompted a bearish short move overall that was spoiled by a quick reversal on the :31 bar. The distillate gain won over in the long run, but the draw on oil caused the initial indecision. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 87.77 with 1 tick of slippage, then been stopped a few sec later as it popped up at 87.96 with 4 ticks of slippage. After the initial indecision, it struggled briefly to conquer the support of the 200 SMA, then fell for several lows, eventually bottoming at 86.06 for 182 ticks 2 hrs later. The reversal reclaimed 52 ticks in about 1 hr, nearly reaching the 200 SMA.

ZB 06-13 (1 Min) 4.05.2013

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

May 022013

4/5/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 198K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 88K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.7%
Rate Actual: 7.6%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 146’24

1st Peak @ 147’24 – 0831 (1 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 147’16 – 0832 (2 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 148’00 – 0834 (4 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 147’15 – 0847 (17 min)
17 ticks

Final Peak @ 148’02 – 0911 (41 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 147’19 – 0923 (53 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Very negative report overall showing 110K less jobs created than expected, and a 0.1% improvement in the unemployment U-3 rate due to shrinkage of the labor force. This caused the bonds to rally for 32 ticks on the :31 bar, crossing the 50 SMA and the R2 Pivot near the origin, then peaking at the R3 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 146’30 with 2 ticks of slippage. Then you would have had an opportunity to capture about 20-24 ticks on the :31 bar, or up to 30 ticks on the :33 or :34 bars. Due to the R3 Pivot and the strong resistance normally accompanying, I elected to exit on the R3 Pivot for 24 ticks. Remember, all reports except 1 on the ZB have achieved 2nd peaks, so being patient and waiting for a target level if it did not initially fill is a safe move. After the peak, it reversed minimally for 8 ticks on the :32 bar, then rose again for a quick 2nd peak of 8 more ticks in 3 min. Then it reversed for 17 ticks in about 13 min to the area where the 13 and 20 intersected, before popping back up for a slightly higher final peak of 2 more ticks in 25 min. Then the final reversal eclipsed the 50 SMA and R3 Pivot for 15 ticks in 12 min. After that it continued to trade between the R3 Pivot and the HOD. Another amazing trade on the ZB!

ZB 06-13 (1 Min) 3.08.2013

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

May 022013

3/8/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 162K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 236K
Previous Revision: +41K to 196K
Rate Forecast: 7.9%
Rate Actual: 7.7%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 141’26

1st Peak @ 140’18 – 0831 (1 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 141’01 – 0833 (3 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 140’14 – 0837 (7 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 141’11 – 1013 (103 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Very positive report overall showing 74K more jobs created than expected, and a 0.2% improvement in the unemployment U-3 rate, in spite of a strong downward revision to the previous report. This caused the bonds to fall for 40 ticks on the :31 bar, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Pivot near the origin, the S2 Pivot and peaking just above the S3 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 141’19 with 3 ticks of slippage. Then you would have had an opportunity to capture up to 30 ticks as it bottomed at 140’18 several times. Remember, all reports except 1 on the ZB have achieved 2nd peaks, so being patient and waiting for a target level if it did not initially fill is a safe move. After the peak, it reversed back up for 15 ticks on the :33 bar, then fell again for a quick 2nd peak of 4 more ticks in 7 min to nick the S3 Pivot. Then it reversed for 29 ticks in about 90 min to the 200 SMA and S2 Pivot. Another amazing trade on the ZB!

ZB 03-13 (1 Min) 2.01.2013

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

May 022013

2/1/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 161K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 157K
Previous Revision: +41K to 196K
Rate Forecast: 7.8%
Rate Actual: 7.9%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 143’01

1st Peak @ 143’25 – 0831 (1 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 143’08 – 0839 (9 min)
17 ticks

Final Peak @ 144’13 – 0935 (65 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 143’18 – 1010 (100 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Mixed report overall showing a matching reading on the job creation, a disappointing unemployment U-3 rate, and an strong upward revision to the previous report. This caused the bonds to rally for 24 ticks on the :31 bar, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot near the origin and peaking just below the R1 Pivot. The long reactions are due to the job #s, while the short reactions are due to the uptick in the rate. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 143’05 with no slippage. Then you would have had an opportunity to capture up to 19 ticks as it peaked twice at 143’25. Remember, all reports except 1 on the ZB have achieved 2nd peaks, so being patient and waiting for a target level if it did not initially fill is a safe move. After the peak, it reversed back to the 20 SMA and the PP Pivot, then climbed for a prolonged 2nd peak of 20 more ticks in the next hour 8 ticks above the R2 Pivot. Then it reversed for 27 ticks in about 30 min to the 200 SMA.

CL 03-13 (1 Min) 1.30.13

Advance GDP Comments Off

Apr 272013

1/30/2013 Quarterly Advance GDP (0830 EST)
Forecast: 1.1%
Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: +1.1% to 3.1%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 97.83
1st Peak@ 97.46 – 0831 (1 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 97.74 – 0836 (6 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell short of the forecast causing a short spike of 37 ticks on the :31 bar that crossed no SMAs or Pivots as it was already trending lower. It bottomed out at 97.46 on the 100 SMA on the 15 min chart. Normally an offset of over 1% on the GDP would provide a much larger reaction, but with a dismal forecast of only 1.1%, expectations were pessimistic to begin with. A healthy economy should have a minimum of 3-3.5% and a recovering economy should be 4-5% or more. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 97.74 with 2 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with about 20 ticks toward the end of the bar. If you look at the DX index for this time period, it did not move much, surprisingly. The reversal came quickly in the next 5 min for 28 ticks up to the 13 SMA. After that it fell for a double bottom, then chopped sideways in a 25 tick range.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 4.3.2013

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Apr 272013

4/3/2013 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 55.9
Actual: 54.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 96.68

1st Peak @ 96.39 – 1006 (6 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 96.55 – 1027 (78 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 96.08 – 1038 (38 min)
60 ticks

Reversal to 96.46 – 1055 (55 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Moderately negative report fell short of the forecast by 1.5 points. This caused a slow developing short spike of 29 ticks that culminated on the :06 bar. It used the 100 and 200 SMAs as resistance for the launch. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 96.64 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with 6-20 ticks on the :02-:06 bars depending upon your patience. After the initial peak it chopped sideways and eventually reversed to nick the 50 SMA. Then it fell for a dramatic 2nd peak of 60 ticks after a brief struggle with the S1 Pivot. Then the reversal reclaimed 38 ticks, crossing the S1 Pivot and eclipsing the 50 SMA. After that the selloff continued to 94.18 until the pit close at 1430, about 3.5 hrs later, but not due to this report.

CL 04 13 (1 Min) 3.5.2013

3/5/2013 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 55.0
Actual: 56.0
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 90.49

1st Peak @ 90.60 – 1002 (2 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 90.19 – 1118 (78 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Moderately positive report exceeded the forecast by a point. This caused a small long spike of 12 ticks that was unsustainable and could not reach the short term high attained a few min before the report. It used the 100 SMA as support for the launch, then the 20 SMA was enough resistance to rein it in. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 90.53 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with 3-6 ticks on the :02 bar at or above the 20 SMA. After that it chopped sideways stuck in the fist of SMAs and attempted a 2nd peak, only able to achieve 1 more tick. Then the reversal fell 41 ticks to cross the all 3 SMAs and find support at the OOD.

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